Bret Kavanaugh’s confirmation was supposed to be a slam dunk and the Supreme Court was destined to be  controlled of five very conservative Justices for a generation regardless of what party controls Congress and the White House in the years to come. Senate Republicans were congratulating themselves on what amounted to a political coup.   They denied Obama’s right to have his nominee voted on by the Senate for almost a year after the death of Anthony Scalia and then quickly installed Neil Gorsuch on the court as soon as Trump moved into the White House.  They were also confident that they would be able to push Trump’s second Supreme Court nominee through the confirmation process over the ineffective objections of Senate Democrats well before the mid-term elections.

The champagne was cooling and Senate Republicans believed they would soon have every reason to celebrate – using unprecedented political maneuvering they were on the brink of stealing the Supreme Court.  They had reversed the situation where the court had been destined to be dominated by liberal Justices had Merrick Garland been confirmed and instead were in the process of setting it up it to be dominated by conservative Justices.  Then the unexpected happened; the perfect nominee was exposed to have feet of clay.

After Christine Blasey Ford came forward and accused Brent Kavanaugh of attempted rape when she when they were in high school, Senate Republicans were forced to set a Judiciary Committee hearing to have both Ford and Kavanaugh tell their stories, but it was evident that they were still intent on ramming through the nomination regardless of the results of the hearing.

However, things got complicated when Deborah Ramirez came forward and accused Kavanaugh of exposing himself to her at a drunken party and Julie Swetnick accused him of spiking punch  to take sexual advantage of vulnerable girls and of performing numerous acts unwanted sexual aggression numerous other parties while he was a student at Yale.

Now a fourth woman claims that a drunk Kavanaugh “shoved her friend up against the wall very aggressively and sexually” after they left a bar.  This accuser claims there were four witnesses to the act which occurred well after Kavanaugh finished college, but Republicans have discounted the claim because those involved have chosen to remain anonymous, at least for now.  However, that could change very quickly if these people feel that their experience is being summerly dismissed.

While they still retain the power to control the proceedings, Senate Republican leadership now finds itself in a very difficult situation. If they plow ahead as planned with Judicial Committee vote after the Ford-Kavanaugh hearing, effectively shutting down an additional  investigations into the allegations of Ford and the two other women, they risk two very unpleasant outcomes.

First. they risk losing votes of undecided Republican Senators.  If they lose more than one Kavanaugh will not be confirmed because Red State Democratic Senators are not going to come to their rescue if two or more Republicans chose not to vote for confirmation.  If Ford comes off as a credible witness at the hearing, no one knows how Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski will react now that  additional women have come forward.  Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake have nothing to lose by bucking their leadership if they are so inclined. Mitch McConnell should especially concerned about Jeff Flake given the lecture he delivered to his fellow Senators on the Senate floor.

On the other had if McConnell is able to keep most of his Republican team in line and is able to ram through Kavanaugh’s confirmation, he may well be signing his party’s death warrant in the upcoming mid-term elections.  Trump and his Republican enablers in Congress have already alienated a large majority of women.  Polls show that 65% women with college degrees identify as Democratic or Democratic-leaning while only 29% of college educated women identify as Republican or Republican leaning.  51% of non-college educated women now identify as Democratic or Democratic-leaning while 41% identify as Republican or Republican leaning.

The “Me Too” movement is very real.  Women who have been abused sexually now have explicit permission not only to come forward, but also to be believed.  Powerful men standing in front of that fast-moving train have be mowed down.  Those who have suggested that women who claimed to have been sexually abused had ulterior motives and/or should have come forward sooner have been sweep aside.

The claims of the women involved in the Kavanaugh situation seem to be very plausible.  In high school and/or college many of us either experienced or at least heard about of parties where the participants got so drunk and unruly that almost unbelievable incidents occurred.  Many of us have known young people in our high school or college days whose actions were totally unpredictable when they got drunk.  Therefore, the stories that the women are telling seem to be well within the realm of possibility for many people.

If Senate Republicans do Trump’s bidding and confirm Kavanaugh without all of the women being heard and/or without a thoroughly unbiased investigation into their claims, there will be hell to pay in November.  The Democratic and progressive base is already highly motivated to vote. Republicans certainly don’t want millions of angry women storming the polls.

Nor is the matter closed if Senate Republicans press ahead and quickly confirm Kavanaugh.  Congressional Democrats and the media will continue to investigate the claims against the new Supreme Court Justice. The fourth woman and her witnesses may identify themselves and bear witness to their accusations.  Even more women may come forward.  If the claims of the accusers can be verified, Republicans will be vilified further. If Democrats take control of the House, and perhaps even the Senate, look for them to launch an official investigations into the matter. If they become convinced that Kavanaugh lied during his testimony before Congress, he can be impeached.

On the other hand, if the Senate Republican leadership gives into demands to hear from all three of Kavanaugh accusers and their witnesses as well as calling on the FBI to perform a through investigation into all of the complaints, the nomination process will inevitably be delayed.  The Republican base will not be happy.  However, the greatest risk that the Republican face is that the truth about Kavanaugh’s wild days will surface and the some to the claims against him will be verified.

If that happens there will not be enough time to complete the confirmation process of another Trump nominee before the November election.  Trying to complete the confirmation process with in a lame duck Senate session will be problematic at best for the Republicans, especially if the Democrats win control of the Senate in the elections.  There is a limit to extent that a political party can subvert the will of the people without severe repercussions.

Mitch McConnell and other Republican leaders still hold all of cards, but they don’t yet have a winning hand.  They are caught in a damned if you do and damned if you don’t situation. Trump is now adding to their problems by expressing views of women who claim to have been sexually abused like he was still living 1950’s.  The only question which Republicans still must answer is whether their attempt to control the Supreme Court for the next twenty to thirty years is worth losing control of both Houses of Congress and eventually the White House for a considerable period of time.

Update (Thursday after Ford portion of the hearing) After watching the extremely credible testimony of Christine Blasey Ford and her questioning by the prosecutor who at times seemed to even commensurate with her, I am now convinced that this hearing has been a total disaster for the Republicans.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Kavanaugh’s name is pulled from consideration without further fanfare.  Even without hearing from Kavanaugh I am convinced that if the Senate Republicans continue with this farce without a through investigation each and every claim, including those from those who seek to remain anonymous, they will live to regret it.  Regardless if they chose to proceed, if they eventually vote to confirm Kavanaugh, they will be committing political suicide in my opinion.

Updated (Late Thursday night):  By coming out with angry bluster, holding the Democrats responsible for his situation, and openly avoiding answering Senator’s questions while attacking them, Kavanaugh may have solidified the Republican votes necessary for his confirmation. We’ll see.  However, outside of “Crazy Town” his performance only convinced Americans who were already in his corner.

He did nothing to impeach the very credible testimony of Dr. Ford that he tried to rape here while both were in high school.  He certainly did nothing to persuade the undecided that the testimony of Deborah Ramirez and Julie Swetnick cannot be believed, and he did nothing today to bolster the choirboy image he has been trying to portray.

I predict that more women who knew Kavanaugh in high school and college will quickly come forward to at a minimum dispute his claim that he never drank so much that he “blacked out” and forgot what he did while under the influence.  That is all that it would take to bridge Dr. Ford’s accusation with his denials. One of women in the crowd he ran around with at Yale was on Chris Cuomo’s show tonight and said she got drunk with Kavanaugh many times and that he often got so drunk that she finds it impossible to believe that he could remember his actions every  time he was totally inebriated.

However, this is exactly what Republicans pushing for his confirmation hope to avoid.  They re pushing for votes both in the Judiciary Committee and on the House floor for confirmation before the trickle of accusations that Kavanaugh lied to Congress becomes a flood.

However, if Senate Republicans are successful in this effort to get him quickly confirmed, I am still firmly convinced that they will be trading the future of their party for a seat on the Supreme Court.  Women and the men who defend them will take their revenge in the mid-term elections and in the next Presidential election in 2020. And thereafter, If Kavanaugh is not impeached and convicted, every time that he casts the deciding vote on a controversial issues such as legislation eroding a woman’s right to choose, that anger will again rise to overflowing . Republicans will pay for their actions for a long time to come.

Update (Friday night):  Now that the FBI is involved they are going to many former acquaintances who will testify that Kavanaugh lied multiple times to the Senate Judiciary Committee under oath about his choirboy image and we will ultimately see the FBI report.  Will that be enough for the Republicans to cancel his confirmation. Well, if they don’t the reaction will move to level 5 tornado intensity overnight.

 

Cajun   9/27/2018

Last update: 9/28?2018