There seems to be a wide spread opinion in the United States and our allied countries that once ordinary Russians people learn what a disaster the Russian invasion of Ukraine has become they will turn against Vladimir Putin.  That view of course rests on the assumption that they will eventually see through the Kremlin’s lies.

What is not being taken into consideration is that this view also assumes that everyday Russians will readily reject government propaganda once they learn the truth.  It is upon this rock upon which our hopeful vision crashes.  We need to look no further than our experience in this country for a perfect example of how people often simply don’t even want to hear, much less believe, what they don’t want to believe.

Here we have a significant fraction of the population that continues to believe a number of big lies despite numerous credible reports that throughly debunk them, and they also continue to accept the veracity of new lies they are being told every day.  More importantly, they intentionally refuse to consume any media where they might learn the truth, preferring instead to only listen to radio talk shows, watch TV talking heads, and patronize internet websites which perpetuate the lies.

People in general are often conditioned to believe just what they want to believe. Why would we think that ordinary Russians are any different?  In this respect, the historical view of Russian population is very important.  

Since the early 1400’s under the leadership of Ivan III (Ivan the Great) and then Ivan IV (Ivan the Terrible), through the rule of the Czars and the heyday of the Soviet Union, through an endless series of wars of conquest Russia dramatically increased its sovereign territory and its influence over neighboring countries. (See the map provided by this link depicting that expansion.) Since during this entire time period the Russian peoples never lived in anything resembling a democracy, Russian rulers encountered and successfully crushed countless violent uprisings

Consequently, a large majority of the current population looks back with nostalgia at the former Russian empire and the period when the Soviets dominated the other member countries of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact and greatly influenced many other counties around the world.  In fact much Putin’s political appeal stems from his often stated desire to “restore Russia to its former greatness”.  This is also one of the primary reason why the Russia people have tolerated their loss of individual freedoms as Putin has tightened his iron grip on their nation.  It should not be surprising that his is popularity among the Russian population has actually increased above 80% since his armies invaded Ukraine. 

So a large majority of the population are extremely susceptible to the propaganda being pushed by the government through Russia’s state owned and dominated media.  They actually believe that the Ukraine and other former eastern block countries rightfully belong under the traditional dominance of Mother Russia.  Therefore, they are being told the lies that they want to hear.  In addition, unlike their lie believing American counterparts, they have no easy way of learning truth through the normal means available to them.  

The Russian government has shut down or extensively censored all of the independent media organizations in the country.  A new law makes it a crime punishable by 15 years in prison for any citizen to say anything which is contrary to government’s propaganda.  The government is also doing its best to censor the Internet, throttling social media companies such as Facebook and Twitter so they are effectively unreachable in Russia.

However, government control of the internet in Russia is “leaky” and citizens can still by determined effort learn the horrid truths about their country’s war on Ukraine.  And there are definitely some Russian citizens who have made that effort.  But they are in the minority.  If we learned anything from our own experience it is that when people are being told the lies that they want to hear, they will not seek to learn the truth even if doing so requires no effort at all.

So don’t expect the Russian population to turn against Putin in the coming months, even if the Russian war effort continues to go badly.  Even as allied sanctions start to bite deeply into economic lives of everyday Russians, the likely result will be a “rallying around the flag” with frustrations being redirected as hatred against the US and its allies.  In addition, even if politically the tide begins to turn against him, Putin has so consolidated his power and tightened his iron grip on the country’s mechanisms, that he should be able remain in power even if he loses the confidence the majority of the Russians, which again isn’t likely.

So it is probable that Putin will remain in power for the foreseeable future. Taking that into consideration our best option is to continue increasing his country’s economic pain, make Russia an international pariah, and dramatically limit its influence on the world stage.  All of this is already in progress.  

Cajun 4/1/2022