While it is still too early to start predicting the winner in the November presidential election, I thought it would be interesting to see how the race is shaping up. So I did some research and pulled together all of the relative polls from Nate Silver’s 538 website. First we need to look at the nationwide polls which would be equivalent to the popular vote. Then, most importantly, we need to check out the polls in battle ground states where the Electoral College is won and lost.
I broke down the national polls into two categories. The first set of nationwide polls below is comprised of only registered voters. (Polls where adults were polled, whether they were registered voters or not, are not included in this article because I believe they are irrelevant.) The second set of nationwide polls included below contain only registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the presidential election. One would normally assume that these polls of likely voters would more accurately reflect the outcome of the election if it were held today.
For comparison, immediately below are the results of the 2016 presidential election popular vote which had Hillary Clinton winning far more actual votes than Trump:
Results of 2016 election: Clinton 48.6% – Trump 46.5% Clinton +2.1% (2,868,686 votes)
Nationwide Polls of Registered Voters
YouGov 4/19-4/21 Biden 48% – Trump 42% Biden +6
Morning Consult 4/14-4/16 Biden 46% – Trump 42% Biden +4
Harris Poll 4/14-4/16 Biden 54% – Trump 46% Biden +8
Morning Consult 4/14-4/16 Biden 47% – Trump 43% Biden +4
NBC News/Wall Street Journal 4/13-4/15 Biden 49% – Trump 42% Biden +7
YouGov 4/12-4/14 Biden 48% – Trump 43% Biden +5
Pew Research Center 4/8-4/12 Biden 47% – Trump 45% Biden +2
Ipsos 4/3-4/5 Biden 45% – Trump 40% Biden +5
Hart Research Group 4/3-4/5 Biden 50% – Trump 43% Biden +7
Average: Biden +5.4%
Nationwide Polls of Likely Voters
Change Research 4/17-4/18 Biden 48% – Trump 44% Biden +4
Firehouse Strategies/Optimus 4/7-4/14 Biden 54% – Trump 42% Biden +12
Firehouse Strategies/Optimus 4/4-4/10 Biden 53% – Trump 43% Biden +10
Firehouse Strategies/Optimus 3/28-4/4 Biden 50% – Trump 44% Biden +6
Firehouse Strategies/Optimus 3/21-4/28 Biden 51% – Trump 43% Biden +8
Average: Biden +8%
As you can see from the results of both categories of the nationwide polls, Joe Biden would be expected to do much better against Trump in the 2020 popular vote category if the election were held today than even Hillary did in the 2016 election. What is interesting is the fact that Joe Biden is doing much better in the polls which only included likely voters.
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
Of course, while she won the popular vote by almost 3 million votes, Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 presidential election in the Electoral College. Most political experts point to her losses to Trump in three states, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as the turning point of the election. Had she won those three states she would have won the Electoral College and the election but instead she lost all three states by a grand total of less than 78,000 votes. So we need to understand how Biden is polling in those three critical states. Below for each of these states is Trump’s margin of victory in 2016, followed by the results of the latest polls.
Michigan (16 Electoral College Votes)
2016 Michigan Election Results: Clinton 47.3% – Trump 47.5% Trump +0.2% (10,704 votes)
Most recent Michigan polls:
Fox News 4/19-4/21 Biden 49% – Trump 41% Biden +8
Ipsos 4/15-4/20 Biden 49% – Trump 41% Biden +8
Hart Research Group 4/6-4/8 Biden 50% – Trump 41% Biden +9
Public Policy Polling 3/31-4/1 Biden 48% – Trump 45% Biden +3
Average: Biden +7
Pennsylvania (20 Electoral College Votes)
2016 Pennsylvania Election Results: Clinton 47.5% – Trump 48.2% Trump +0.7% (44,292 votes)
Most recent Pennsylvania polls:
Fox News 4/18-4/21 Biden 50% – Trump 42% Biden +8
Ipsos 4/15-4/20 Biden 46% – Trump 40% Biden +6
Hodas & Associates 4/4-4/8 Biden 45% – Trump 47% Trump +2
Balden Wallace U. 4/4-4/8 Biden 45% – Trump 47% Trump +2
Average: Biden +2.5
Wisconsin (10 Electoral College Votes)
2016 Wisconsin Election Results: Clinton 46.5% – Trump 47.2% Trump +0.7% (22,748 votes)
Most recent Wisconsin polls
Ipsos 4/15-4/20 Biden 44% – Trump 40% Biden +6
Hart Research Group 4/6-4/8 Biden 48% – Trump 47% Biden +1
Marquette Law School 3/24-3/29 Biden 48% – Trump 45% Biden +3
Average: Biden +3.3
At present it appears that Biden is ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin and behind in Pennsylvania. If these polls ultimately prove accurate, Biden will win 46 more electoral college votes than Clinton did in 2016 by taking Michigan, Pennslyvania and Wisconsin and at the same time Trump would lose 46 of the electoral votes he won in that election, a net change of 92 votes. At the same time it should be noted that the races are still somewhat close in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
It is true that there are a number of Bright Blue states such as California, New York and Connecticut which Hillary won by large margins in 2016 and which current polling data indicates Biden is also fully expected to win by similar margins in the coming election. By the same token there are Ruby Red states such Mississippi, Montana and Texas where Trump is almost guaranteed to win again though Biden may do better than Clinton in some of those states. However, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were not the only states where the 2016 election was won and lost. There were a number of states where the election results were very close.
In some states Trump won by narrow margins and in other states Clinton eked out a victory. Therefore, these too should be considered battle ground states where the 2020 election could be won or lost. In addition, there are other states which, either because of changing demographics or the nature of Trump’s presidency, might be up for grabs in the coming election. First let’s explore the political situation of states where Trump won in 2016 but where Biden is now competitive.
States Won by Trump in 2016 Which May be Competitive in 2020 Election
Arizona (11 Electoral College Votes)
2016 Election Results: Clinton 45.4% – Trump 49.5% Trump +4.1%
Most recent Arizona poll:
OH Predictive Insights 4/7-4/8 Biden 52% – Trump 43% Biden +9
Florida (29 Electoral College Votes)
2016 Election Results: Clinton 47.8% – Trump 49.1% Trump +1.3%
Most recent Florida polls:
St. Pete Polls 4/16-4/17 Biden 48% – Trump 48% Biden +1 (poll numbers rounded)
St. Pete Polls 4/16-4/16 Biden 53% – Trump 47% Biden +6
St. Pete Polls 4/16-4/16 Biden 54% – Trump 46% Biden +8
- North Florida 3/31-4/4 Biden 46% – Trump 40% Biden +6
Florida Poll Average: Biden +5¼%
Georgia (16 Electoral College Votes)
2016 Election Results: Clinton 45.6% – Trump 51.3% Trump +5.7%
Most recent Georgia poll:
Battleground Connect 3/31-4/1 Biden 46% – Trump 48% Trump +2
North Carolina (15 Electoral College Votes)
2016 Election Results: Clinton 46.7% – Trump 50.5% Trump +3.8%
Most recent North Carolina polls:
Public Policy Polling 4/14-4/15 Biden 48% – Trump 47% Biden +1
Harper Polling 4/4-4/5 Biden 42% – Trump 49% Trump +7
North Carolina Poll Average: Trump +3
If Biden can pick up Florida and Arizona, two states which Hillary lost in 2016, this would net him an additional 40 electoral votes over Hillary’s 2016 performance and leave Trump with 40 less electoral votes than he won in the last election. However, and I can’t say this enough, it’s still very early and we need to keep abreast of the polling in all four of these states going forward.
States Won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 Which May be Competitive in 2020 Election
Of course, in order to win the 2020 election, it goes without saying that not only must Biden beat Trump in some of the states which Trump won in 2016, he must also hold on to all of the states which Hillary won in 2016. Below are the states which Hillary won in 2016 which might be in play for the 2020 election.
Maine (4 Electoral College Votes, Hillary won 3, Trump won 1 in 2016)
2016 Election Results: Clinton 47.9% – Trump 45.2% Clinton +2.7%
Most recent Main poll:
Public Policy Polling 4/2-4/3 Biden 52% – Trump 42% Biden +10%
Minnesota (10 Electoral College Votes)
2016 Election Results: Clinton 46.9% – Trump 45.4% Clinton +1.5%
Most recent Minnesota poll:
Mason-Dixon Polling 3/14-3/16 Biden 50% – Trump 38% Biden +12%
Nevada (6 Electoral College Votes)
2016 Election Results: Clinton 47.9% – Trump 45.5% Clinton +2.4%
Most recent Nevada poll:
AtlasIntel 2/14-2/16 Biden 44% – Trump 41% Biden +3% (caution – older poll)
New Hampshire (4 Electoral College Votes)
2016 Election Results: Clinton 47.6% – Trump 47.2% Clinton +0.4%
Most recent New Hampshire poll:
New Hampshire 2/19-2/25 Biden 48% – Trump 47% Biden +1% (caution – older poll)
Biden appears to be comfortably ahead in Maine, Minnesota and Nevada. Indeed given his big lead in Maine, it is likely that that Joe will pick up the single electoral vote which Trump won in Maine in 2016, but we have know way of knowing this for sure. However, as you can see New Hampshire with its 4 electoral votes is still pretty much up for grabs and its 4 electoral votes might be critical in a close electoral college race.
Final Analysis
It is painful to remember that though Hillary beat Trump by almost three million in the popular vote total, Trump won the Electoral College by 74 votes:
Electoral College 2016 results: Trump 306 – Clinton 232 Trump +74
If Joe were win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin an then also add Arizona and Florida to his column in November, their 86 combined electoral votes would push him over the top because they would be added to his total and subtracted from Trump’s:
Hypothetical Electoral College 2020 results: Biden 318 – Trump 220 Biden +98
Therefore, if the 2020 election were held today, and the poll data we have been using is representative, Joe Biden would be elected President of the United States by a popular vote total of somewhere above 6 million votes and, more importantly he would win the Electoral College as well.
However, there are at least two big caveats embedded in the statement above. First, the election will not be held until November 3rd so we are more than six months away that decision point. That is a long time during which political trends can change under the best of circumstances. With the entire nation battling the coronavirus and eventually trying to open up the economy, a huge number of unknowns are also going to be injected into the equation.
In addition, as we learned the hard way in 2016, if polls are off by as little as 2% in even a very small group of states, the expected election results can easily be reversed. Given that our tentative results have Biden ahead in the Electoral College by 98 votes, it only takes a swing of 49 electoral votes to give Trump the lead. For instance, currently we have Florida and its 29 electoral votes, Arizona with 11, and Wisconsin with 10 in Biden’s win column. However, if Trump were to win those states instead he would win the Electoral College by 2 votes
Hypothetical Electoral College 2020 results: Biden 268 – Trump 270 Trump +2
So while it appears that Joe Biden is ahead of Trump in the all-important Electoral College tally for the time being, his election is anything but a slam dunk. Political opinions can and probably will change over time and one or even a set of two or three polls can be misleading. So while Joe Biden could win the popular vote by a margin that could be twice the size of Hillary; he could still lose the Electoral College.
Conclusion: We still have a lot of work to do! I will try to provide update articles in this same format periodically until the election.
Cajun 4/20/2020, Updated 4/23/2020