Donald Trump has made his promise to defeat ISIS quickly with decisive action one of the one of the centerpieces of his campaign. Never mind that that it turns out that his secret plan to eliminate the terrorist group is to give the generals thirty days to come up with his non-existent plan after he is elected. Never mind that the plan the generals are likely to promote is the same one President Obama is presently using which is to assist indigenous forces in eliminating the reason for ISIS’s existence, its claim of that it is restoring the Muslim caliphate. Why would the professional military leaders seek to continue to promote that plan? Because it is working.
ISIS has lost control over half of the territory it originally claimed to rebel Syrian, Kurdish and Iraqi forces supported by the allied bombing campaign and US Special Forces. ISIS has lost 5 of the 10 major cities it formally controlled and Mosul, the largest city in Northern Iraq, and the Syrian city of Raqqa, capital of the self proclaimed caliphate, are squarely in the sights of opposing forces. The ISIS dream of a caliphate encompassing not only all of the Middle East, but also all of Northern Africa and much of Central Asia is dying a well deserved premature death. It is becoming apparent to potential recruits that if ISIS can’t even maintain control of the territory that it already possesses, its plans for an all encompassing caliphate which is its very reason for existence was never attainable. Hence for many disenchanted Muslims around the world, the allure of ISIS is fast disappearing.
In addition, Turkish troops and Syrian rebels have driven ISIS from their former positions along the Syrian-Turkish border effectively cutting off the routes recruits used to travel from their home countries in Europe to ISIS controlled territory. The Turkish government has also become more vigilant and is actively seeking out and capturing potential ISIS recruits who are attempting to travel through their country on their way to wage jihad. They are deporting these people to their home countries where they face criminal charges.
Several recent articles, including a very comprehensive one written by Griff Witte and Sudarsan Raghavan for the Washington Post, highlight the dramatic reduction of ISIS recruits leaving their home countries to travel to Syria and Iraq to join the caliphate and fight the infidels. From the Witte/Rahavan article published September 9th:
The flow of foreign fighters to the ranks of the Islamic State — once a mighty current of thousands of radicalized men and women converging on Syrian and Iraqi battlefields from nations across the globe — has been cut to a trickle this year as the group’s territory has shrunk and its ambitions have withered.
The decline, officials and experts say, has been dramatic, prolonged and geographically widespread, with the number of Europeans, Americans, North Africans and others joining up to fight and die for the idea of a revived Islamic caliphate falling as precipitously as the terrorist group’s fortunes.
From a peak of 2,000 foreign recruits crossing the Turkey-Syria border each month, the Islamic State and other extremist groups operating in Syria are down to as few as 50, according to U.S. intelligence assessments.
Governments from Britain to Tunisia say their citizens are less likely than they have been in years to heed the Islamic State’s calls for front-line volunteers.
Link: Number of Foreign Fighters Joining ISIS Falls Dramatically
With mounting casualties and the cut off from the once nearly inexhaustible supply of new recruits which previously replenished their ranks, ISIS prospects on the battle field and for holding on to its remaining territory appear to be bleak. Despite Donald Trump’s claims to the contrary, President’s Obama’s plan for defeating ISIS is working. And it is working without the need to commit large numbers of American troops to the fight and without the need to determine how to fill the vacuum left by the removal of our troops when the fighting is done.
Make no mistake, the eventual elimination of ISIS as a pseudo country in Iraq and Syria will in no way end the war on terror. Former ISIS trained fighters could go to ground after the fighting is over and then try to return to their home countries to try to cause havoc. Even without a safe haven, radical Muslims will still attempt to recruit like minded people to their cause on line. In fact, the defeat of ISIS in its home territory could well spur renewed terrorist attacks against civilians; but that defeat is now the inevitable the first step to road to winning the war on terrorism.
Hopefully, by November 8th the majority of the American voters will come to recognize the wisdom of President Obama’s plans to eliminate ISIS, which Hillary Clinton supports, and will also come to recognize Donald Trump’s plan for what it is, meaningless bluster. Hopefully the American people will also come realize that how clueless Trump is when it comes to foreign policy and that he doesn’t have the patience to learn the essentials of what he has to know to become Commander and Chief.
Cajun 9/11/2016