Donald Trump has made his promise to defeat ISIS quickly with decisive action one of the one of the centerpieces of his campaign. Never mind that that it turns out that his secret plan to eliminate the terrorist group is to give the generals thirty days to come up with his non-existent plan after he is elected. Never mind that the plan the generals are likely to promote is the same one President Obama is presently using which is to assist indigenous forces in eliminating the reason for ISIS’s existence, its claim of that it is restoring the Muslim caliphate. Why would the professional military leaders seek to continue to promote that plan? Because it is working.
ISIS has lost control over half of the territory it originally claimed to rebel Syrian, Kurdish and Iraqi forces supported by the allied bombing campaign and US Special Forces. ISIS has lost 5 of the 10 major cities it formally controlled and Mosul, the largest city in Northern Iraq, and the Syrian city of Raqqa, capital of the self proclaimed caliphate, are squarely in the sights of opposing forces. The ISIS dream of a caliphate encompassing not only all of the Middle East, but also all of Northern Africa and much of Central Asia is dying a well deserved premature death. It is becoming apparent to potential recruits that if ISIS can’t even maintain control of the territory that it already possesses, its plans for an all encompassing caliphate which is its very reason for existence was never attainable. Hence for many disenchanted Muslims around the world, the allure of ISIS is fast disappearing.
In addition, Turkish troops and Syrian rebels have driven ISIS from their former positions along the Syrian-Turkish border effectively cutting off the routes recruits used to travel from their home countries in Europe to ISIS controlled territory. The Turkish government has also become more vigilant and is actively seeking out and capturing potential ISIS recruits who are attempting to travel through their country on their way to wage jihad. They are deporting these people to their home countries where they face criminal charges.
Several recent articles, including a very comprehensive one written by Griff Witte and Sudarsan Raghavan for the Washington Post, highlight the dramatic reduction of ISIS recruits leaving their home countries to travel to Syria and Iraq to join the caliphate and fight the infidels. From the Witte/Rahavan article published September 9th:
The flow of foreign fighters to the ranks of the Islamic State — once a mighty current of thousands of radicalized men and women converging on Syrian and Iraqi battlefields from nations across the globe — has been cut to a trickle this year as the group’s territory has shrunk and its ambitions have withered.
The decline, officials and experts say, has been dramatic, prolonged and geographically widespread, with the number of Europeans, Americans, North Africans and others joining up to fight and die for the idea of a revived Islamic caliphate falling as precipitously as the terrorist group’s fortunes.
From a peak of 2,000 foreign recruits crossing the Turkey-Syria border each month, the Islamic State and other extremist groups operating in Syria are down to as few as 50, according to U.S. intelligence assessments.
Governments from Britain to Tunisia say their citizens are less likely than they have been in years to heed the Islamic State’s calls for front-line volunteers.
Link: Number of Foreign Fighters Joining ISIS Falls Dramatically
With mounting casualties and the cut off from the once nearly inexhaustible supply of new recruits which previously replenished their ranks, ISIS prospects on the battle field and for holding on to its remaining territory appear to be bleak. Despite Donald Trump’s claims to the contrary, President’s Obama’s plan for defeating ISIS is working. And it is working without the need to commit large numbers of American troops to the fight and without the need to determine how to fill the vacuum left by the removal of our troops when the fighting is done.
Make no mistake, the eventual elimination of ISIS as a pseudo country in Iraq and Syria will in no way end the war on terror. Former ISIS trained fighters could go to ground after the fighting is over and then try to return to their home countries to try to cause havoc. Even without a safe haven, radical Muslims will still attempt to recruit like minded people to their cause on line. In fact, the defeat of ISIS in its home territory could well spur renewed terrorist attacks against civilians; but that defeat is now the inevitable the first step to road to winning the war on terrorism.
Hopefully, by November 8th the majority of the American voters will come to recognize the wisdom of President Obama’s plans to eliminate ISIS, which Hillary Clinton supports, and will also come to recognize Donald Trump’s plan for what it is, meaningless bluster. Hopefully the American people will also come realize that how clueless Trump is when it comes to foreign policy and that he doesn’t have the patience to learn the essentials of what he has to know to become Commander and Chief.
Cajun 9/11/2016
As I wandered this medium yesterday and this morning I was a bit offput by the lack of commentary on this the 15th anniversary of that tragic day. It is as if most do not wish to remember I think.
I read your editorial with some relish and agree with much of it.
I do diverge , however, from your belief that the actions of our President, with respect to this seemingly endless war on terror, are effective, at least in bringing peace to the Middle East and security from radicalism to the world in general.
Certainly bin Laden is dead, certainly ISIS is in retreat, these facts are undeniable, as are the facts of so much slaughter, so many of innocents as well,, or the fact of foreign policies that were responsible for the rise of these groups to begin with.
Fifteen years of war, if one can even call this a war, which, by definition, is an armed combat between nations. Fifteen years of enormous profits for the MIC at such great and grave cost to our infrastructure, our system of education, our lifeline to the poor, the sick, the elderly.
When, and if, the last of these groups is defeated the causation that makes fertile field in which such groups arise will remain. We are as parasites, sucking the lifesblood (oil) from that area, interfering with governments in order to ensure a stable flow of that resource to our ever hungry needs.
As long as we treat nations as colonies, as existing only to satisfy our bloated standard of living, and at such great expense to so many, can we be assured that yet another 9/11 will not occur, that other groups with other names will not arise?
I thank you for the opportunity to speak my mind on this topic.
Nice to have you back reading my blog Doubledee. There is some accuracy to you comments, but I can help but remember that the situation in Iraq and that whole area of the middle east has it roots back over almost 1400 years. As I am sure that you are aware the entire Sunni/Shiite struggle which is at the heart of the conflict in that area goes back to a struggle to succeed the prophet Muhammad after he died in the year 632 between those who favored Muhammad’s son-in-law , Ali, and those who favored the elder leaders of the religion.
While the two groups eventually went to war with each other, thereafter the Sunni and Shiite lived in relative peace with one another. Then, when the Ottaman Turks concurred the area which is now Iraq, almost 500 years ago, they put local Shiites, who were in the minority in the region, in charge of their proxy government, because they were Shiites. Shiites got all of the best jobs and grew rich over the next 400 years while the Sunnis grew more and more resentful.
During World War I the Ottoman Turk empire was defeated by the allies and the British began supervising the area. They located all of the potential oil fields and drew the present border of Iraq around them, artificially putting Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish territories in the same country. Then they set up a King who was Shiite as their proxy. Again the majority Shiite chafed under Shiite rule.
Then the king was over thrown by the Ba’ath party eventually headed by Saddam Houssein who persecuted and tortured to death anyone who opposed him, especially the majority Sunni. By then the Sunni were very resentful of the Shiite.
So you can see that the seeds for all of the conflicts we see in the region were sewn long before the US got involved in the region, though the Bush administration was stupid enough to take the evil cork (Saddam) out of that evil bottle.