As I am sure that you are already heard that California is scheduled to have an election Tuesday, 9/14, to decide if they will recall their Governor, Democrat Gavin Newsom. 

Under California’s crazy recall election laws an election on whether to recall an elected public official must be held if the number of California voters who sign a recall petition exceeds 12%  of the votes in the official’s last election.  If an adequate number of voter signatures is verified on a recall petition, a recall election must be held within 80 to 90 days.  

Since it is extremely unlikely for any candidate in a California election to have the support of 88% or more of the voters, that essentially means that it is theoretically possible that the party of the losing candidate (in California that’s the Republicans) could force a recall election at any time.  When a recall election is scheduled, mail-in ballots are mailed to all of the voters in the last election.  

There are two questions on a recall ballot, in this case: 1) Shall GAVIN NEWSOM be recalled (removed) from the office of Governor? and 2) If the governor is recalled, who do you want to replace him? The second question is followed by a list of 46 names of qualified candidates. The second question becomes moot if a majority of voters elect to vote “No” in response to the first question.  If the majority vote “Yes” in response to the first question, the current official is recalled (thrown out of office) and the candidate getting the most votes on the second question replaces that official, regardless of the percentage of the votes that he/she receives.

There it gets even crazier.  Normally there are a large number of candidates seeking to replace the elected official subject to being recalled.  For Newsom’s recall election, 46 alternate candidates managed to get their names on the ballot for the second question.  That means that even if Newsom receives 49.9% of the vote on the first question and 50.1% vote to recall, he/she must leave office.  It also means that the person getting the most votes on the second question is elected to the office, even if that person gets only say 5% of the vote. There is no runoff.  That makes no sense whatsoever.   

This is the sixth time that Republicans started a petition to recall Newsom; the previous five attempts failed to get a sufficient number of signatures.  In this case, 5,000 Republican volunteers managed to get 1,719,943 valid signatures on a recall petition which was equal to only 17.5% of the voters in Newson’s last election.  

Since Democratic voters outnumber Republican voters 2 to 1 in California it would seem that Newsom would survive the recall election quite easily.  However, California Republicans are animated by anti-mask and anti-vax extremist views and Newsom’s support of sanctuary cities, so California Trump supporters determined to vote and remove him from office. 

On the other hand, Newsom has faced some incredible challenges during his time in office, including the pandemic (during which he issued shutdown orders), record wildfires, water rationing, and a huge homeless problem.  Now a good case can be made that none of these problems are of his doing and there was little more that he could have done to resolve them, but apparently some Democrats believe that the buck stops at his office and are apathetic about voting.  That, plus Republican intense resolve to remove Newsom, puts into question whether he can survive the recall vote.

The real problem lies in what happens if Newsom is recalled. No truly viable Democrats have entered the race to replace him, and the Republicans are determined to elect an anti-mask, anti-vax extremist Trump supporter.  Polls show that candidate most likely to replace Newsom if he is recalled is Larry Elder, a libertarian radio commentator.  According to the latest polls Elder is projected to receive 27.6% of the vote, far ahead of his next closest contender with 7.0%.  Lately Elder has been expanding his lead.

Elder is known for his past controversial remarks and he clearly misogynistic. He opposes paid family leave. He clearly believes that employers should be able to discriminate against women for having children and that women who have children should not run for public office.  In a column he once wrote that Democrats had an advantage over Republicans because they were supported by women, and “women know less than men about political issues, economics and current events.” On his website he once wrote, “Why does our culture refuse to hold women as well as men accountable for their participation in domestic violence?” Elder once opined, “Glass ceiling? Ha! What glass ceiling? Women, women exaggerate the problem of sexism”. 

Actions speak louder than words.  His former fiancée has accused Elder of threatening her with a gun during an argument.  She was afraid that he would kill her.  Alexandra Datig claims that Elder, who was high on marijuana at the time, “slowly walked over to the nightstand, opened the door, took out the gun and he checked if it was loaded while I was talking.  He wanted to make sure I saw that he had it. . .  My fear was great, and I understood I needed to de-escalate.”

Elder is also known for his controversial views. Recently he stated that “the ideal minimum wage is $0”. He opposes gun control and denies that systemic racism exists.  He has called global warming a “crock,” the Roe vs. Wade ruling “one of the worst decisions that the Supreme Court ever handed down,” and has stated that “Medicare should be abolished”.  He has also made it clear that he believes that the Covid vaccine is dangerous and that young people should not be vaccinated or wear masks in school.  On his radio show had on a physician who believes vaccines are being petaled in minority communities as “population control”.  In many ways, Elder is more extreme than Donald Trump whom he has defended continuously.

In addition, Elder. a radio personality, how hasn’t a clue how California state government works and would be a disaster as governor.  The Democrats own a supermajority in both houses of the California legislature so he can neither get any proposal passed nor effectively veto any legislation. Aside from being a major pain in the butt for California in general, his real danger would be his ability to replace any of California’s US senators or representatives should a vacancy occur.  For instance, Dianne Feinstein is 88 and even some Democrats have suggested that she should perhaps retire.  With razor-thin majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, an Elder appointment could change the national political landscape.

So this is the guy who would very likely replace Gavin Newsom should he be recalled.  If California Democrats are stupid or complacent enough to allow Newsom to be recalled, they will get what they richly deserve.

Cajun (Rick Guilbeau)   9/12/2021

Updated 9/13/21: originally the date for the recall election was misstated. The date has been corrected to Tuesday, 9/14/2021