In the upcoming election, Trump can count the votes of most white evangelical Christians.  In 2016 81% of this group voted for him and polls now show that approximately 82% of them plan to vote for him again this time around.  The reason for his popularity among those who claim that they have been “born again” is clear.  He routinely shares their views on the elimination of Roe vs. Wade and the involvement of religion in public matters.  He also at least pretends to share their fears of socialists, Muslims, the LGBT community, immigrates and independent women.   More to the point, he has consistently appointed very conservative judges to the federal bench including two to the Supreme Court with another in the batter’s box. Evangelicals believe that these judges will share their views in court opinions for the next 20 to 30 years.   

Trump and Evangelicals have always been strange bedfellows. How could a man who has had three wives, numerous affairs – one with a porn star, has been accused of sexual assault by thirteen women and rarely attends church services possibly be viewed as a champion of evangelical Christianity?  Doesn’t his entire worldview seem to make a mockery of core Christian values like humility and empathy and care for the poor?  

Evangelicals explain this apparent dichotomy by following the lead of prominent Protestant leaders in Trump’s circle such as Paula White and Franklin Graham. These religious leaders compare Trump to the biblical kings David and Solomon who were far from perfect, but who were “chosen by God to do his work”.  Trump has also been hailed by these leaders as being the most pro-life, most pro-religious freedom president in American history.  However, they have gone even further than that.  Evangelical leaders and their followers often claim that Trump’s unlikely victory in 2016 was the “will of God” and that he has been “anointed by God” to do His work.

Give that is their belief, don’t they now have to be wondering whether God has changed his mind?  If evangelicals believe that God is intimately involved in the selection and the lives of the presidents of the United States, they must be thinking that Trump is being subjected to the trials of Job.  

As the election grows nearer, fate (or God) hasn’t been kind to Trump. He has been dealt body blow after body blow on a number of fronts in this election cycle.  These blows hit hard early on and with Trump’s failure to properly respond they quickly diminished his chances of reelection. Then, with most of the voters’ opinions already firmly set in stone, the most recent of these events, some again self-inflicted, have lately prevented Trump from attracting the few remaining undecided voters needed to cut into Joe Biden’s substantial early lead in the polls.

COVID-19: First the pandemic hit early in this election year. Trump made the situation significantly worse by his stubborn negligence and his utter failure to level with the American people.  The US economy, as well as other economies around the world, took a significant hit by early shutdowns aimed at slowing the spread of the disease.  However, following Trump’s lead and insistence, when most states started to open up too early in defiance of CDC guidance, the virus came back with a vengeance.

The mistakes of early re-openings were made even more serious when most Trump supporters followed his example by not wearing masks, by ignoring social distance guidelines, and by their attendance of large events   As a result, while other wealthy countries followed the science to get the virus under some control and safely reopened their economies, our economy continued to flounder because a significant percentage of our population didn’t feel safe in resuming their normal activities.  

Trump’s Generals: Trump used to love to brag about “his generals”, his first Secretary of Defense General Ames Mattis, former Chief of Staff General John Kelly, and former national security adviser General H.R. McMaster. Until that is each left the administration on bad terms with the president. Recently all three have had less than kind things to say about their former boss. 

For instance, Mattis stated, “Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try.” He later went on to say, “I earned my spurs on the battlefield … And Donald Trump earned his spurs in a letter from a doctor.” Then all three joined a large group of retired high ranking Generals and Admirals who publicly and harshly criticized Trump for his use of members of the armed forces to clear out peaceful protestors in Lafayette Park across from the White House in order to stage a photo op in front of historic St. John’s Church.

Republic Defections: The hits have kept on coming as Trump has been recently broadsided with the defections of a large number of prominent Republicans.  These include the widow of Senator John McCain, Cindy McCain; former Secretary of State Colin Powell; 2016 Republican presidential candidate Carly Fiorina, three former Republican governors, three former Republican Senators, and 22 Republican former and present members to the House of Representatives. Many of their names we would all recognize instantly. They have all pledged to vote for Biden instead of Trump. Other big name Republicans such as Senator Mitt Romney, John Bolton and others didn’t say they would vote for the Democratic candidate, but have stated that they plan to vote for someone other than Trump.

These Republicans have been joined by almost two hundred former members of John McCain’s campaign and senate staffs, Romney campaign alumnus, and former George W. Bush White House staff members.  Also joining the anti-Trump ranks is a group of 130 top Republican national security officials. A number of other high profile Republicans have formed several super PACS and are running TV and social media ads against Trump.  Republicans Against Trump is a grassroots group of everyday Republicans, former Republicans, conservatives, and former Trump voters who can’t bring themselves to support Trump again in November.

Insider Books and Media Investigations:  Trump has also been unable to catch a break as he has also been forced to endure the publication of a number of tell-all books published by people with inside knowledge of Trump’s character and actions.  Some of the best ones include Fear and then Rage by legendary journalist Bob Woodward, Fire and Fury by author Michael Wolff, A Higher Loyalty by James Comey, and The Room Where It Happened by John Bolton. These books combined to the drip, drip, drip of bad press stemming from numerous media investigations of Trump and his administration which continue to undermine Trump’s already damaged reputation.  Too Much Is Never Enough by Trump’s niece Mary Trump, who holds a PhD in clinical psychology, provides damning accounts of her professional opinion of uncle’s warped character and her family’s dirty laundry.

Trump’s Tax Returns: Then a lengthy New York Times article based on Trump’s 2000 to 2016 tax returns and other financial documents revealed that Trump effectively paid almost no taxes during those years and that his businesses are swimming in debt.  The article dealt yet another blow to Trump’s reputation as it revealed him to be a poor businessman or a tax cheat, and more likely both.  It did nothing to solidify Trump’s relationship with the blue-collar workers who he is trying to lure to his side in this election.  More bad news came when the Times revealed that they would publish an edition on the subjects of Trump’s business and taxes in the near future.

Bad Debate Performance:  Trump’s campaign viewed the first debate as one of Trump’s last opportunities to cut into Biden’s lead in battleground states.  However, Trump’s insistence in depicting Biden as “Sleepy Joe”, an old man with early signs of dementia, set a low bar for Biden to step over. Worse yet, Trump evidently couldn’t help himself as he overplayed his aggressive game plan, continuing to interrupt Biden and even the debate moderator Chris Wallace throughout the entire debate.  Various post-debate media and congressional comments called it a “dumpster fire”, ”, a “disgrace”, a “train wreck”, and a “sh-t show” with Trump held up as the culprit. Post-debate polls indicate that Biden won the debate by a large margin and Trump lost one of his last opportunities to catch up.

Trump Contracts COVID-19:  Now both Donald and Melania Trump have tested positive for the virus, perhaps the final straw.  It appears they were infected at a White House event in which Trump introduced his latest Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett.  Others also testing positive after attending this White House super spreader event, which featured the participants in close contact with little or no mask-wearing, so far includes Hope Hicks, Kellyanne Conway, three Republicans senators on the Judiciary Committee, Trump’s campaign manager, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, three White House Reporters, a White House staffer, and the President of Notre Dame (where Barrett earned her law degree).

Trump is now in the hospital with a fever, fatigue and breathing problems; not a good state of affairs for an obese 74 year with who knows what other hidden health problems. It will at a minimum keep him off of the campaign trail for two weeks with only a month left before the election.  Given Trump’s insistence on staging events with no masks and no social distancing, it was another self-inflicted wound.  It also deals a damaging blow to Trump’s constant narrative that “we have turned the corner on the virus” and that it “will soon disappear forever”.

The resulting question for evangelicals:    It certainly appears that fate (or God) has dealt Trump a very bad hand, regardless of what he did to deserve it.  So let’s put aside for the time being the obvious answer that you believe that God will yet again have a hand in another miracle finish that will see Trump winning the election, because down deep inside you know that isn’t going to happen.  If you believe that God really does chose sides and always has a hand in the selection of the future President of the United States, given all the trials Trump has had to endure, don’t you also have to believe that God doesn’t want him to have a second term?

Cajun (Rick Guilbeau)   10/3/2020