This morning the Supreme Court let stand a Texas law that will effectively abolish the right of a woman to get an abortion six weeks after she was impregnated, a point when many women don’t even know that they are pregnant. What was even more disturbing was the manner in which this ruling was made public, with the casualness of a horse shooing off a fly with its tail.
Lawyers for abortion clinics had filed an emergency petition for a stay with the court of the law that was scheduled to soon go into effect; they had patients in their clinics waiting to exercise their right to get the procedure. The Supreme Court dismissed the petition for the stay without explaining the reasons for their ruling, without dissenting opinions, and without revealing the votes of the nine Justices or even the final vote count. Arguably the second most important Supreme Court ruling of the last hundred years, the 1973 Row vs. Wade decision, was gutted without fanfare or explanation.
Most Texas women seeking an abortion will now have to travel out of state for the procedure but expect that alternative to get even harder in the near future. Other red states are sure to copy the Texas law and pass it in their legislatures. Given the casual manner with which the court handled this case, many Supreme Court experts now expect the court to eventually overturn Roe vs. Wade altogether, or at minimum make it irrelevant.
The issue will now become a political battle, both in individual states and in national elections. Anti-abortion Republicans may be happy with the outcome, but I am convinced it will become a case of “be careful what you wish for because you might not like the final results”.
Recent polls have demonstrated that approximately 77% of Americans do not want to see Roe vs. Wade overturned. 11% are in favor of overturning the ruling, another 11% are unsure. Of those who don’t want to see the ruling overturned, 26% say they would like to see some restrictions added on, but I don’t think they have in mind making the procedure illegal before a woman even knows she is pregnant. Even among Republicans, 59% are not in favor of overturning, only 31% are in favor, and 9% are unsure. Among independents those numbers 81%, 11%, and 9%.
Clearly, Republicans, led by their far-right fringe, are intent on going down a road where most Americans don’t want to be led. More to the point they are stomping on a hot button issue that has deep meaning for many American women and their male supporters. Republicans are successfully messing with women’s right to decide what is best for their bodies and it doesn’t get any more personal than that. Even for many women who would never consider getting an abortion, this is definitely a no-go zone.
I expect this to be a major issue in both the 2022 off-year elections and the national general elections in 2024. I fully expect to see extremely ticked-off women leading the Democratic charge. Presidential contests and Congressional elections in purple states are often determined by turnout. Republicans, who will already be dealing with the Donald Trump factor, are clearly on the wrong side of this issue. Voters may not be able to elect replacements on the Supreme Court, but they can certainly take revenge on the party that used unsavory tactics to stack the court to their favor.
Cajun (Rick Guilbeau) 9/1/2021