I am tempted to say that Donald Trump is an accidental president, but that’s not quite accurate. I think that it is fair to say that Trump never really believed that he would become president when he was in the running for the job, until it happened, and that his entire campaign was originally part of his lifelong effort to bolster his name brand, and of course his self-esteem.
He won the primaries by appealing directly to the socially conservative ideologies and racial and religious prejudices of rank and file of the Republican Party. Previously establishment Republicans had given these deeply held beliefs only lip service. In the general election he secured enough votes for razor thin victories in three swing states to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote by also promising to totally disrupt Washington DC., thus appealing to those with a deep distain for the federal government and the politicians of both parties who ran it.
I can remember the discussion after Trump won the election as to whether his behavior would become more “presidential” once he moved into the White House. That was never to be. Trump decided early on that his best course of action would be to “dance with the one that brought him to the party”. He apparently figured that since he won the nomination and then the White House by being crude and disruptive and appealing the prejudices to his supporters, that would be his path to success in the White House as well.
For his entire life Trump had been obsessed with persuading others that he was the greatest businessman that ever lived, and despite his many business failures he was somewhat successful, especially in persuading himself that he could do no wrong. Once he decided on his path forward, given his narcissistic personality, he could never admit he might be wrong and adjust his course. This has been the root of his self-destructive behavior which was on display throughout his residency in the White House.
His obsessive catering to his base of supporters which often alienated other voters and his constant disruption of presidential norms has had consequences. Unlike the last 12 of his predecessors in the White House (Truman through Obama), Trump has not once obtained a job approval rating of over 50% during his entire three and a half years in office. In fact he had his highest job approval rating the day he took office (47.8%) and it has been all downhill from there. In fact, his first day on the job was also the only day that his job approval number exceeded his job disapproval number (42.5%).
However, earlier this year there was still an opportunity for a turnaround. if Trump had been more flexible he could have changed course and vastly improved his popularity with the majority of the voting public. Presidents are often judged on how they react to national crises and the COVID-19 pandemic presented Trump with both a challenge and an opportunity to display his leadership capabilities. Even after Trump botched his early response to the virus by doing his best to ignore it, it was still not too late for him to respond in a manner that would reflect credit on himself.
In fact, when he appeared to begin to take the pandemic seriously and on March 16th of this year began to conduct daily briefings of the White House Coronavirus Task Force which his administration had assembled, the public responded favorably. The gap between Trump’s disapproval rating and his approval rating shrank to only -4.3% (49.7% disapproval 45.4 approval) April 7th. These were his best numbers since immediately after taking office. However, Trump being Trump, he soon began to make it clear that he valued his reelection chances, which he believed depended on a reopening of the economy, more than the lives and well being of the American people. His job disapproval numbers began to rise, and his approval number began to fall yet again.
Trump began to use the briefings to openly contradict the scientific opinions of medical experts on the taskforce, politicize safety procedures such as social distancing and wearing of masks, and put pressure on state officials to reopen well before their states had met CDC guidelines, which in large part they did. As a result the US became the only major industrial country not to get the pandemic under control before reopening safely.
The COVID-19 virus hit Europeans hard early on with almost every country recording hundreds of thousands of cases and tens of thousands of deaths, but in those countries their new cases now number only a few hundred a day. China, where the virus got its start, as well as South Korea and Japan have virtually eliminated the virus from their shores. Here in the US the number of new cases has reached 60,000 a day and still increasing. Our country has only 5% of the world’s population but 25% of the cases of the virus and 25% of the deaths.
These facts, and the underlying causes have not gone unnoticed. Trump’s average approval/disapproval numbers related specifically to his handling of the pandemic continue to deteriorate and now stand at 56.3% disapprove while only 39.5% approve – almost a 17% difference. It has gotten to the point that it appears that only Trump’s core of avid supporters approve of his response to the pandemic.
Then in the middle of the pandemic came the unwarranted death of George Floyd at the hands of a Minneapolis police officer. That death reignited the still glowing embers of the backlash against police brutality and racial prejudice. The resulting nationwide protests were yet another challenge and opportunity for Trump, and again he failed miserably. Instead of taking his clue from public sentiment which largely support the protests and championing police reform, Trump again sought to appeal to the racial intolerance of his base by labeling the protestors terrorists and worse. He then recently doubled down by championing the retention of Confederate monuments, flags, and base names.
Trump’s latest attempt to divide the country has also not gone unnoticed. Recent polls indicate that 60% to 70% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the situation. In an unprecedented move, many retired military leaders, including former members of Trump’s administration, came forward to publicly call Trump’s intention to use the US military to confront the protesters dangerous and unconstitutional. Yet another challenge and opportunity was squandered in a self-destructive manner.
It is not totally clear why Trump appears to be seemingly intent on totally destroying his chances for reelection. Is he inherently self-destructive? Does he not want to continue to be president? That seems unlikely. That’s not how narcissists normally behave; for those with that personality disorder failure is never an option. It is a better bet that since he has relied on his gut instincts instead of studying and analyzing facts to navigate the world all of his life, he is simply mentally incapable and unwilling to admit that this approach is no longer working for him.
For whatever the reason, thus far Trump has done a good job minimizing his opportunity of serving in the White House for another term. His current job disapproval/approval gap continues to widen. It currently stands at more than 15% – 55.9% disapprove of his job performance while only 40.4% approve. Can he recover? It is possible, but highly questionable.
Trump has pinned all of his hopes on a total economic recovery before the election, and at this juncture that seems highly unlikely. Even before the current viral forest fire, the vast majority of economists have long said that full economic recovery will take at least a year or two. With the COVID-19 virus currently raging out of control, even if everything in the country were to be opened completely, many people will not feel comfortable returning to their former level of activity and consumption and the economy will continue suffer. Even if everything magically returned one day to pre-pandemic status, it is also unlikely that the majority of the citizens would forgive Trump for the thousands of lives lost unnecessarily and for putting them though the worst kind of hell.
Cajun 7/8/2020