If you have been following the impeachment trial closely you already know that Adam Schiff and the other floor managers are pushing hard for four witness to be subpoenaed to testify during the Trump’s impeachment trial: John Bolton – former National Security Adviser, Mick Mulvaney – White House Chief of Staff, Robert Blair – Mulvaney’s senior adviser, and Michael Duffey – Associate Director for National Security at the Office of Management and Budget. They are of course all members of Trump’s administration who have intimate knowledge Trump’s actions and motivations and Trump has ordered all of themnot to testify.
The floor managers are also pushing to subpoena all of the hard evidence – documents, messages, handwritten notes, etc. – pertinent to the trial which Trump has ordered hidden from the public’s view. Pursuant to the law, the documents in question should have been already gathered and stored for ready retrieval, so Trump’s order to stonewall Congress is the only thing keeping them from seeing the light of day.
As you also probably know, the Republicans have already voted down, with party line votes, seven amendments made by the floor managers to subpoena these witness and documents. However, the matter is certain to come up again after the floor managers and Trump’s lawyers have presented their cases. Given the current 53-47 Republican advantage in the Senate, 4 Republican Senators would have to defy Mitch McConnell and Trump and vote with the Democrats to demand that the witness and documents be included in the trial. (To to answer an oft asked question –3 Republicans crossing over would not be sufficient. In case of a tie, the measure fails.)
There is much speculation as to whether the Democrats can get 4 Republicans to vote with them. It appears that 3 seem to be interested in hearing more evidence, but their votes are not assured. It will be even more difficult to convince a fourth Republican to join them. So the question is still very much in the air.
However, regardless of the outcome, it is a brilliant strategy by the Democrats to contend that if they are faithful to their trial oath, every Republican Senator should want to vote to hear from all pertinent witnesses and see all of pertinent documents. This especially puts Republicans Senators who are vulnerable in their 2020 reelection bids in a difficult position. If they vote to subpoena the witnesses and the hidden documents they will alienate many of the Trump voters back home. If don’t vote for the measures, they risk losing the many undecided voters who dislike Trump. They are damned if they do and damned if they do. Either way they decrease their chances of being reelected.
By most accounts the most vulnerable Republican Senators up for reelection in 2020 are Cory Gardner of Colorado, Susan Collins of Maine, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, and Martha McSally for Arizona. Collins along with Mitt Romney of Utah and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska has at least expressed interest in hearing from Bolton. It you have been following recent events you know that McSally has apparently decided that she can’t risk losing Trump’s base back home and has gone all in for Trump. So all eyes are on Gardner and Tillis.
The beauty of the Democratic strategy is that it is a win-win scenario. If they get the witnesses and documents they want, Trump’s insidious plot is likely to be laid totally bare for all to see. That makes it much more difficult for all the Republicans, but especially their most vulnerable Senators, to explain votes not to convict. Then if Collins, Tillis, McSally and Gardner then vote to not convict Trump, they will put their political futures in jeopardy. If they vote to convict, while Trump will still be acquitted, his contention that he has been totally vindicated will be dealt a hard blow. However, regardless of how they vote, the voting public will be less inclined to believe that Trump is exonerated.
(By the way, I am not the least concerned that the Republicans might in turn might be able to call witnesses that are not germane to the case against the president, such as Hunter Biden. Biden is lawyer who is very articulate and knowledgeable and well able to hold his own under questioning. The Republican contention that he was hired only to obtain his father’s influence will fall apart quickly if he is called to testify. He is an experienced lawyer who was a partner in an international consulting firm which specialized in polishing the image of companies with bad reputations. That is exactly why he, along with his consulting firm, was hired was hired by Burisma, a Ukrainian gas company whose owner had formally been accused of corruption. Biden was part of a new international board who was hired to help the company adopt corporate governance best practices.)
if there aren’t enough Republicans to come forth and mandate that the witness and documents be called forth, Democrats will be able to justly contend that it was a show trial where the judges and members of the jury hid much of he evidence from themselves and thus had no desire to see real justice done. Again Trump’s intention of declaring himself vindicated would lose credibility in the view of many voters.
Therefore, regardless of the outcome, the push by the Democratic floor managers for banned witnesses and evidence will negatively affect both the electability of vulnerable Republican Senators and the believably of Trump’s inevitable boost that he has been totally vindicated. That in turn will hurt his chances in November. Now that’s a win-win scenario .
Cajun 1/23/2020