Background: Jill Stein has been the perpetual candidate. The physician who has never run anything bigger than her doctor’s office was the Green Party candidate for Governor of Massachusetts in the 2002 and the 2010. She was then its candidate for President of the United in 2012 and 2016. Now she is again the Green Party’s candidate in the 2024 presidential election.
She has never let her dismal election results dissuade her from running again. In her governor’s race in 2002 she claimed only 3.44% of the votes and faired even worse in 2010 with 0.51% in 2010. Her results in her presidential runs were no better – 0.4% in 2012 and 1.07% in 2016.
Cornel West, a college professor and black political activist, has never presided over anything bigger than a college classroom. This is a guy who said President Obama is “a black mascot of Wall Street oligarchs and a black muppet of corporate plutocrats. And now he has become head of the American killing machine and is proud of it.” He Has also proclaimed that “NATO provoked Russia to invade Ukraine.”
After saying that he would seek the Green Party’s nomination for president, he then stated that he would become the Peoples Party’s candidate. However, after he found that the party lacked ballot access, he declared his intention to run as an independent. Then early this year, he formed the Justice for All Party and is running as its presidential candidate. His candidacy lacks proper funding and through he has managed to get on the ballot in the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin he hasn’t campaigned since August.
What you need to know: Third party candidates only affect elections when they steal votes away from the major party candidate with which they are most closely aligned ideologically. Please recall how votes for Ralph Nader handed the 2000 election to George Bush and how votes for Jill Stein in swing states would have been enough to make Hillary Clinton President in 2016. Those who vote for Stein and West this election could easily make Trump Commander in Chief again.
Current poll average standings: The polls indicate this will be the closest presidential election since the Bush/Gore contest: These are the poll averages for the 6 swing states which will decided the upcoming presidential election: Pennsylvania – Harris by 0.5%, Wisconsin – Harris by 0.7%, Michigan – Harris by 0.9%, Nevada – Even, North Carolina – Trump by 1.1%, Georgia – Trump by 1.8%, and Arizona – Trump by 2.2%,
Harris’ best road to victory: If Harris can win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan (the Blue Wall states) along with the one electoral vote of the Southeastern District of Nebraska (where she is comfortably ahead) she would have the 270 votes required to win the Electoral College. But she is less ahead by less than 1% in each of those three states, and the polls could be easily be off by a percent or two.
Harris’ alternate road to victory: If Harris loses only either Pennsylvania or Michigan she would have win Nevada and either Georgia or North Carolina. If she loses only Wisconsin, she would have to win Nevada and either Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina. But keep in mine Harris is behind by more than 1% in each of those three states.
Votes for Stein and West could easily tip the scales against Harris in 5 of the 6 battlegroud states: In every poll of the 6 battle ground states except Georgia where those polled could.select third party candidates in addition to Harris and Trump, Stein consistently gets at least on 1% of the vote and occasionally 2%. By pulling progressive votes away from Harris in any or all of the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and North Carolina, Stein could easily tilt the Electoral College vote in favor of Trump. West is less of a threat, but he will pull some progressive votes away from Harris in swing states where he is oh the ballot.
It is clear that Republicans believe that a vote for Stein or West is a vote for Trump: The Badger Values PAC, a Republican connected super PAC, recently spent $307,000 on direct mail or other advertising Promoting Stein candidacy. Another Republican-linked PAC, the Fair Election Fund, donated to both Stein’s and Cornel West’s campaignes. Jay Sekulow, who defended Donald Trump in impeachment trial acted on behalf of Stein in a case brought by the Democrats to exclude her from the presidential ballot.
Lessons not learned: One would think that progressives who regularly vote for third party candidates would have learned the lessons taught by the 2000 and 2016 elections and would be even more upset, if that were possible, than the rest of us if we are stuck with Trump for another four years. But they a stubborn far, far left group of individuals who have convinced themselves that the Democrats are as bad a Republicans. We complain about the far, far right crazies, but we have our own on the left.
Cajun (Rick Guilbeau)