The Political Implications of the Eventual Reversal of Roe vs. Wade

The new Supreme Court ruling in the Texas abortion law case signals the strong possibility that the highest court in the land may completely reverse its ruling in the 1973 case of Roe vs. Wade which has for almost a half century guaranteed women the constitutional right to retain control of their own bodies.  

The good news is that by a 8 to 1 margin the Supreme Court ruled that those who favor a woman’s right to choose can challenge the Texas law.  As a result of that challenge the law is very likely to be struck down by the District court because, at least as of now, the Roe vs. Wade ruling is still the law of the land.  However, what is more indicative of the high court’s attitude on whether to ultimately reverse Roe vs. Wade is that it also ruled by a 5 to 4 margin that the Texas law will remain in effect while it is challenged in the lower courts.  

In the former ruling Chief Justice Roberts voted with the three liberal Justices on the court while the five ultra conservative justices voted to let the law stand for now.  This, along with their remarks during oral arguments, are strong indications that those five Justices will also eventually vote to completely overturn Roe vs Wade when it rules on the Mississippi abortion law case which is soon scheduled for oral arguments before the court. The court’s decision on that case is expected in June.  It is the opinion of most legal experts that it will be the Supreme Court’s ruling on that case that is most likely to topple the precedent of Roe vs. Wade.

It should be noted that three of those five ultra conservative justices were appointed by Donald Trump making good on his promise to appoint justices who would overturn the constitutional guarantees of a woman’s right to choose. We should also remember that this five member ultra conservative majority is a result of Mitch McConnell depriving President Obama of the right to appoint Merrick Garland to the court (even though Obama had eleven months left to serve in the White House) and his rushing through the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh when Trump had only six months left in his term. 

It is this hypocritical and cynical manipulation of Senate rules that is directly responsible for forming the ultra conservative majority of the Supreme Court which is capable, and even very likely, to overturn Roe vs. Wade.  By any reasonable standard at least one of those two positions on the court should have been filled by rather Obama or Biden.  That would left the more reasonable Chief Justice Robert with the deciding vote on matters such as Roe vs. Wade. 

Trump appointed three Supreme Court Justices for purely political purpose. If as a result the constitutional protections of a woman’s right to choose are terminated there are very likely to be far-reaching political consequences.  Only 27% of Americans favor overturning Roe vs. Wade while 65% favor retaining its constitutional protections. A majority of men and and even larger majority of women strongly maintain that opinion.  Even many of those who would never be a party to an abortion themselves refuse in principle to impose their moral beliefs on others.

If the the Supreme Court overturns Roe vs. Wade after 48 years of being the law of the land, there is very likely to be an enormous political backlash as a result of that ruling and the repercussions that will follow. The governments of 28 states are hostile to abortion rights. 26 of those states will likely will move very quickly to ban or severely restrict abortions within their borders if Roe vs Wade is overturned. 12 states already have retroactive laws on their books to ban abortions immediately if and when that occurs.  

Large swathes of states in the middle of the country would severally restrict or do away completely with a woman’s right to do as she will with her own body. Many women will have to travel hundreds miles at great expense to have an abortion, and the poorest among them will be the most adversely affected. As a result women will again die or be permanently injured as a result of botched illegal   abortions. 

Women especially will be be furious that a Supreme Court majority composed mostly of men had the audacity to tell them that the law of the land no longer offers protection for their rights to maintain control of their own bodies. The concern for those women most negatively affected by the ruling will be palpable and many others will feel their pain. If and when Roe vs. Wade is struck down everyone needs to be vigorously reminded that was Trump who appointed three of the five Supreme Court Justices who were responsible for that ruling and that two of those Justices were appointed due to the political manipulations of Mitch McConnell and his fellow Senate Republicans. 

If, and regrettably probably when, that momentous defeat is handed to us, we need to harness the power of the resulting revulsion and anger to insure that this kind of injustice where the moral beliefs of the few are unjustly imposed on the many is never allowed to occur again.  That can only be happen if the American people ensure that Republicans are never again allowed to control the presidency or the Senate.  We need use the overturning of Roe vs. Wade as the turning point that marks the beginning of the end of an already Trump weakened Republican Party.

Cajun   12/11/2021

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