The GOP is no longer the political party of your rich uncle or your economically conservative friend. In years gone by Republicans leaders proudly proclaimed that their party stood for the rule of law, free markets, robust legal immigration, and US international leadership based on mutual respect and consensus building with our allies. Party leaders also proudly defended civil public discourse. Now many of GOP leaders such as former Speaker of the House John Boehner, Ohio Governor John Kasich, Arizona Senator and American hero John McCain, former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge, Arizona Senator Jeff Flake, former Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney, Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, and the entire Bush family no longer feel comfortable in the party in which they played such prominent roles for years.
John Boehner recently was quoted as saying, “There is no Republican Party. There is a Trump Party. The Republican Party is kind of taking a nap somewhere.” It would probably be more accurate to say that the Republican Party Boehner remembers is in a coma, a coma from which it may never awake. It has been replaced by a populist uprising based on fear, nativism, protectionism, and anti-intellectualism lead by a narcissistic demagogue who is patently unfit for office.
The Trump revolution is taking a toll on Congressional Republicans. In the average election cycle 22 Democratic and Republican Senators and Representatives retire at the end of their current terms or resign their positions earlier. However, so far 44 Republicans have resigned, retired, or don’t plan to run for reelection this year. Among those leaving their Congressional posts are such notables as Senator Jeff Flake, Senator Bob Corker, Rep. Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, House Oversight Committee Chairman Trey Gowdy of South Carolina, Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah, and House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. While their stated reasons for those leaving are varied, Trump’s role as an albatross around the GOP’s neck cannot be underestimated.
It is significant that only those Republicans who are leaving Congress have had the intestinal fortitude to confront Trump regarding his most outrageous statements and actions. Yet even Speaker Paul Ryan, who is among those departing, has been afraid to bring to the floor any legislation, including DACA which would be surely be passed by both houses of Congress, unless he is certain Trump will sign the bill. Other Congressional Republicans who will running for reelection might criticize Trump privately, but they dare not rebuke him publicly because they fear Trump supporters in their home districts and states.
In large part the Republican leadership brought this populist rebellion on themselves. For far too many years they pandered to the social conservative beliefs of their party’s base to get elected and then spent their time in office catering primarily to the needs of their rich donners to the financial detriment of their party’s rank and file who voted for them. It was only a matter of time before someone came along who not only appealed to the basest instincts of everyday Republicans, but also appeared to be willing to fight for their financial wellbeing. Give Trump credit – not only did he recognize the potential of that strategy, but as one of the world’s greatest conmen he was the perfect person to employ it.
The question is where does this fractured Republican Party go from here? It appears that the majority of rank and file Republicans support Trump’s populist positions and approve of the job he is doing in the White House, even though they sometimes have trouble defending his personal behavior. On the other hand, Trump’s positions on trade, immigration, foreign policy, and even taxes often conflict with the long held positions of the financial conservatives who have traditionally controlled the reins of the Republican Party. What these rich, powerful Republicans lack in number they make up for with clout. They are the big contributors to Republican election campaigns through their PAC’s and the corporations they control employ powerful lobbyists who exert enormous influence on members of Congress.
Trump did not create this schism in the Republican Party. It was clear to anyone with any knowledge of politics that the situation was like lava gathering below the surface waiting to erupt, ready for the right person to come along remind every day Republican that they have been used for years. Adding to the pressure below the surface was the feeling among many blue collar Democrats that their party had moved on to concentrate its efforts on the issues of women and minorities and was no longer concerned about their needs.
Trump was the first to successfully exploit this potential volcano for personal gain. While the damage Trump is doing to this country is not debatable, we are probably fortunate that the first person to exploit this vulnerability was not a savvy Republican politician whose character, personality, and behavior would have served as assets rather than liabilities. I think it is evident from the fact that Trump’s job approval numbers are in the tank that the country is not anxious to keep him in the White House past 2020, even if he manages to stay in office for that long.
However, what happens to the Republican Party after Trump exits the White House? It is not in Trump’s nature to avoid the spotlight and ride quietly into the sunset; look for him to try to try to continue to lead the revolt he fermented. Expect him to continue to heap logs on the culture war fire which he started. Steve Bannon, Breitbart News and other alt right organizations will also continue to fan those flames. On the other hand, establishment Republicans and their big money backers will surely try to take back control of the party they once dominated. Since by then it will have been demonstrated that Trump has badly damaged the Republican brand, establishment types may have reason to believe that they might be successful in that effort. So expect that the schism that Trump helped create in the Republican Party to continue to exist, and probably even deepen.
So what does this mean for US politics and the country in general going forward? Well, the old cliché, “A house divided against itself cannot stand” is far more true than not.
Most establishment politicians, which includes most Republican Senators and many Republican members of the House, are now loath to criticize Trump and his policies which don’t conform to their conservative norm. They fear the backlash of his supporters back home. They may very concerned that Trump’s culture wars are damaging their party, but for the most part they are biting their tongues for now. However, once Trump is removed from the White House, and perhaps is even damaged by the completed Mueller investigation, expect them to revert to their conservative roots on issues such free trade, immigration, foreign policy, etc. and begin to condemn bigotry if and when they believe it is hurting their cause.
On the other hand, alt right leaders will continue to view attacks on immigrants and minorities as well as America First confrontations with other countries, as necessary tools to attract the support of working Americans who have come to believe that the American dream is no longer achievable for themselves and their children. These people already mistrust establishment Republicans. Expect alt right leaders and their media outlets to become much more vocal in their criticisms of mainline conservatives as that segment of the Republican Party reverts back to their traditional positions.
This intratribal warfare is sure to become more intense in the future as Republican primaries across the nation feature candidates representing both of the warring sides. This will be a fight for the heart and soul of the Republican Party, and it won’t be pretty. After ugly primary battles is will be difficult for the two sides to unite and form a united front against Democratic opponents.
Democrats should be able to use the Republican’s intraparty warfare to their advantage and gain control of the White House and both houses of Congress, but only if they are smart about it. They cannot resort again to fighting among themselves, pitting far left liberals against the party’s more centralist elements. We can’t afford another battle like the feud between Clinton and Sanders supporters which left one side totally uninspired in the general election. All Democrats and progressive Independents must put away their differences and unite solidly behind whoever is chosen to be the presidential nominee of the party.
The party must also nominate candidates and adopt policies which will inspire our more liberal younger generation to pay attention and vote. At the same time, Democratic candidates for President and Congress must recapture the allegiance of a formally reliable Democratic voting block by demonstrating to blue collar working people which party truly has their backs. At the same time they must continue to be the go to defenders of the rights of women and minorities. Taken all together, that’s a tall order, but with hard work in these areas combined with the ongoing civil war in the Republican Party, Democrats and their progressive allies should be able to dominate the national scene for some time to come.
Cajun 6/5/2018