First a note on the polls presented in this article: All of the poll information shown below came from the FiveThirtyEight website run by Nate Silver and his of poll analysis. His team ranks each polling organization from A+ to F based on the accuracy of the polls they have produced over time. For obvious reasons I tried to only use the most accurate polls – those ranked A and B. Since political sentiment can evolve quickly over time, I have also tried to use only polls taken over the last three weeks. However, some individual states are polled only intermittently at best. In such cases I chose to use older poll data if it was available to at least give a flavor of the sentiment in those states rather than providing nothing at all. One last note: Don’t get too excited or concerned about data from one single poll, especially if it looks like an outlier. It could be accurate but even the best polling methodology can occasionally produce results which do not accurately represent the sentiment of the voters in the entire polled population.
The poll information below is provided in this format:
Polling Organization (Rank A+ to B-) Dates Poll was conducted
Note: The polling data below represents the most recent polls as of the date of publication. For the latest polling data please visit the FiveThirtyEight website.
The National Race – National Polls – Trump Against Possible Democratic Opponents
Below are the recent polls showing how the top Democratic candidates might do against Trump in the general election if the election were to be held now. I gathered from these poll results that, with few exceptions, each of the leading Democratic candidates would win the popular vote. For some time now Biden has polled best against Trump nationally, usually with either Warren or Sanders or both not too far behind. However, remember that Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by over 3,000,000 votes, but that didn’t work out very well for us. Also withhold any celebrations until you see the polls of key swing states which follow below which are rather alarming.
IBD/TIPP (A/B) Oct 22-31, 2019
Biden 53% – Trump 43% = Biden +10
Warren 52% – Trump 44% = Warren +8
Sanders 51% – Trump 44% = Sanders +7
Harris 49% – Trump 45% = Harris +4
ABC News/Washington Post (A+) Oct 27-30, 2019
Biden 57% – Trump 39% = Biden +17
Warren 55% – Trump 40% = Warren +15
Sanders 55% – Trump 41% = Sanders +14
Buttigieg 52% – Trump 41% = Buttigieg +11
Harris 51% – Trump 42% = Harris +9
ABC News/Washington Post (A+) Oct 27-30, 2019 (separate poll)
Biden 58% – Trump 39% = Biden +18
Warren 54% – Trump 39% = Warren +15
Sanders 56% – Trump 39% = Sanders +17
Buttigieg 51% – Trump 40% = Buttigieg +11
Harris 52% – Trump 41% = Harris +11
NBC News/Wall Street Journal (A) Oct 27-30, 2019
Biden 50% – Trump 41% = Biden +9
Warren 50% – Trump 42% = Warren +8
Fox News (A) Oct 27-30, 2019
Biden 51% – Trump 39% = Biden +12
Sanders 49% – Trump 41% = Sanders +8
Warren 46% – Trump 41% = Warren +5
Buttigieg 41% – Trump 41% = (Even)
Morning Consult (B-) Oct 25-28
Biden 41% – Trump 36% = Biden +5
Sanders 39% – Trump 37% = Sanders +2
Warren 35% – Trump 36% = Trump +1
Harris 31% – Trump 36% = Trump +5
Buttigieg 29% – Trump 35% = Trump +6
CNN/SSRS (A-) Oct 17-20
Biden 53% – Trump 43% = Biden +10
Warren 35% – Trump 36% = Warren +8
Buttigieg 50% – Trump 44% = Buttigieg +6
Sanders 39% – Trump 37% = Sanders +2
National Race – Swing States – Trump Against Possible Democratic Opponents in Key States
In our presidential election system the Electoral College is where the meets the road. In 2016 Trump eked out a narrow Electoral College victory after losing the popular vote by winning the key states of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by very narrow margins.
The recent polling data from Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin(below) is very troubling. Despite lagging behind in the national polls, Trump again appears to be quite competitive in these four states against all of the major Democratic candidates. I have also included polling data for Arizona, a state Trump won by 11% in 2016, which now appears to be competitive. (That’s a bit of good news.) The bottom line is that the Democratic nominee could win the popular vote by a margin even much larger than Hillary Clinton’s and still lose the Electoral College.
The present polling data makes it clear that in these critical states it is important who we nominate. Right now Biden appears to be the better candidate against Trump in Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona with Sanders not far behind in Florida and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Sanders is doing slightly better than Biden against Trump in Michigan. Warren appears to be the least effective candidate in all of these critical states. The polls indicate that, at least for the time being, she would lose to Trump more often than not in all four states.
Regardless of the current national polling data, the most important takeaway is that the 2020 presidential election result may well depend on how well the Democratic nominee fairs against Trump in these swing states. The present situation is fluid. Many factors, including the impeachment inquiry, may affect how well the various Democratic nominees fair against Trump in these swing states as we get closer to the primaries and the general election. We need to continue to check the polls of these swing states going forward because it is very important that we nominate the Democratic Candidate who has the best chance of beating Trump in the Electoral College.
Florida Primary:
Siena College/New York Times (A+) Oct 13-26
Biden 46% – Trump 44% = Biden +2
Sanders 44% – Trump 45% = Sanders -1
Warren 42% – Trump 46% = Warren -4
Siena College/New York Times (A+) Oct 13-26
Biden 46% – Trump 44% = Biden +2
Sanders 44% – Trump 45% = Sanders -1
Warren 41% – Trump 45% = Warren -4
University of North Florida (A-) Oct 14-20
Biden 48% – Trump 43% = Biden +5
Warren 46% – Trump 43% = Warren +3
Buttigieg 42% – Trump 43% = Buttigieg -1%
Harris 41% % – Trump 43% = Harris -4%
Pennsylvania Primary:
Siena College/New York Times Oct 13-25
Biden 46% – Trump 45% = Biden +1
Sanders 44% – Trump 45% = Sanders -1
Warren 42% – Trump 45% = Warren -1
Michigan Primary:
Siena College/New York Times Oct 13-25
Sanders 46% – Trump 42% = Sanders +4
Biden 45% – Trump 44% = Biden +1
Warren 40% – Trump 45% = Warren -5
Siena College/New York Times Oct 13-25 (separate poll)
Sanders 45% – Trump 43% = Sanders +2
Biden 44% – Trump 45% = Biden -1
Warren 39% – Trump 46% = Warren -7
Wisconsin Primary:
Siena College/New York Times Oct 13-25
Biden 46% – Trump 44% = Biden +2
Sanders 47% – Trump 46% = Sanders +1
Warren 45% – Trump 47% = Warren -2
Siena College/New York Times Oct 13-25
Biden 46% – Trump 44% = Biden +2
Sanders 47% – Trump 45% = Sanders +2
Warren 46% – Trump 46% = (even)
Marquette Law School (A) Oct 13-17
Biden 50% – Trump 44% = Biden +6
Sanders 48% – Trump 46% = Sanders +2
Warren 47% – Trump 46% = Warren +1
Buttigieg 43% – Trump 45% = Buttigieg -2
Arizona Primary:
Emerson College (B+) Oct 25-28
Biden 50% – Trump 50% = (Even)
Warren 50% – Trump 50% = (Even)
Sanders 49% – Trump 51% = Sanders -2
Siena College/New York Times Oct 13-25
Biden 49% – Trump 46% = Biden +3
Warren 46% – Trump 47% = Warren -1
Sanders 45% – Trump 49% = Sanders -4
Siena College/New York Times Oct 13-23 (separate poll)
Biden 50% – Trump 45% = Biden +5
Warren 47% – Trump 45% = Warren +2
Sanders 46% – Trump 47% = Sanders -1
Democratic Primary – National Polls
Of course our first order of business is to choose the Democratic nominee for the office of President of the United States. The following are the most recent polls indicating how the democratic candidates are faring against one another on the national scale.
Ipsos (B-) Nov 1-4
Biden 22% – Biden +6%
Sanders 15%
Warren 11%
Buttigieg 6%
Morning Consult (B-) Oct 28-Nov 3
Biden 32% – Biden +6%
Sanders 20%
Warren 20%
Buttigieg 7%
Harris 5%
Yang 3%
IBD/TIPP (A/B) Oct 31-Nov 3
Biden 29% – Biden +6%
Warren 23%
Sanders 13%
Buttigieg 7%
Klobuchar 3%
Yang 3%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal (A-) Oct 27-30
Biden 27% – Biden +4%
Warren 23%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 6%
Klobuchar 5%
Harris 4%
Yang 3%
Fox News (A) Oct 27-30
Biden 31% – Biden +10%
Warren 21%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 7%
Harris3%
Yang 3%
ABC News/Washington Post (A+) Oct 27-30
Biden 28% – Biden +5%
Warren 23%
Sanders 17%
Buttigieg 9%
ABC News/Washington Post (A+) Oct 27-30 (separate poll)
Biden 27% – Biden +6%
Warren 21%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 7%
Democratic Primaries – Initial Caucus and Primary States:
It is also important to keep track of how the various candidates are polling in the early Democratic caucuses and primary states. In the past candidates who early on were not given much of a chance moved into the contention among the front runners by doing well in these early election contests. The leading candidates also want to establish momentum with wins in these early caucuses and primaries which they hope will carry them on to victory in the later primaries. For this reason, as in the past, many of the candidates are investing much of their money and resources in these early states. I have also included the polls for the Super Tuesday (March 3, 2020) primaries because such a large number of delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be selected that day.
Iowa Caucus – February 2, 2019 – 41 Delegates:
Siena College/New York Times Oct 13-25
Warren 22% – Warren +3
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 18%
Biden 17%
Suffolk University (B+) Oct 16-18
Biden 18% – Biden +1
Warren 17%
Buttigieg 13%
Sanders 9%
Emerson College (B+) Oct 13-16
Biden 23% – Tie
Warren 23% – Tie
Buttigieg 16%
Sanders 13%
Yang 5%
New Hampshire Primary – Feb 11/2019 – 24 Delegates:
University of New Hampshire (B+) Oct 21-27
Sanders 21% Sanders +3
Warren 18%
Biden 15%
Buttigieg 10%
Yang 5%
Klobuchar 5%
Gabbard 5%
University of New Hampshire (B+) Oct 21-27
Warren 25% – Warren +3
Sanders 22%
Biden 24%
Buttigieg 9%
Harris 5%
Nevada Caucus – Feb 22/2019 – 36 Delegates:
Emerson College (B-) Oct 31-Nov 3
Biden 29% – Biden +10
Warren 19%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 7%
Steyer 3%
Klobuchar 3%
Yang 3%
Emerson College (A-) Oct 31-Nov 3
Biden 30% – Biden +8
Warren 22%
Sanders 19%
Yang 5%
Harris 5%
Buttigieg 5%
South Carolina Primary – Feb 29, 2019 – 54 Delegates:
Monmouth University (A+) Oct 31-Nov 3
Biden 33% – Biden +17
Warren 16%
Sanders 12%
Harris 6%
Steyer 4%
Buttigieg 3%
Alabama Primary – Mar 3, 2019 – 52 Delegates:
Change Research (B-) Mar 20-23 (note very early date)
Biden 42% – Biden +29
Sanders 13%
Harris 12%
O’Rourke 10%
Booker 9%
Warren 6%
American Samoa Caucus – Mar 3, 2019 – 6 Delegates:
(no polls)
Arkansas Primary – Mar 3, 2019 – 52 Delegates:
(no polls)
California Primary – Mar 3, 2019 – 416 Delegates:
Survey USA (A) Oct 15/16
Biden 32% – Biden +15
Warren 18%
Sanders 17%
Harris 8%
Yang 4%
Buttigieg 4%
Colorado Primary – Mar 3, 2019 – 67 Delegates:
Emerson College (B-) Aug 16-19
Sanders 26% – Sanders +1
Biden 25%
Warren 20%
Harris 13%
Buttigieg 5%
Yang 4%
Maine Primary – Mar 3, 2019 – 24 Delegates:
Public Policy Polling (B-) Oct 11-15
Warren 31% – Warren +12
Biden 19%
Sanders 12%
Buttigieg 9%
Harris 4%
Massachusetts Primary – Mar 3, 2019 – 51 Delegates:
MassINC Polling Group (A/B) Oct 16-20
Warren 33% – Warren +15
Biden 18%
Sanders 13%
Buttigieg 7%
Harris 3%
Minnesota Primary – Mar 3, 2019 –75 Delegates:
(No good recent polling)
North Carolina Primary – Mar 3, 2019 –110 Delegates:
Public Policy Polling (B) Oct 4-6
Biden 39% – Biden +17
Warren 22%
Buttigieg 9%
Sanders 6%
Harris 3%
Yang 3%
Oklahoma Primary – Mar 3, 2019 – 37 Delegates:
Sooner Poll (B) July 17-27 (note old date)
Biden 26% – Biden +14
Warren 12%
Harris 8%
Buttigieg 6%
Sanders 5%
Tennessee Primary – Mar 3, 2019 – 64 Delegates:
(No good recent polls)
Texas Primary – Mar 3, 2019 – 228 Delegates:
YouGov (B-) Oct 18-27
Biden 23% – Biden +5
Warren 18%
O’Rourke 14%
Sanders 12%
Buttigieg 6%
Harris 5%
Yang 4%
Utah Primary – Mar 3, 2019 – 29 Delegates:
(No polls available)
Vermont Primary – Mar 3, 2019 – 16 Delegates:
(No polls available)
Virginia Primary – Mar 3, 2019 – 99 Delegates:
Research America (B-) Sept 3-15 (note older date)
Biden 23% – Biden +14
Warren 9%
Sanders 9%
Harris 5%
Buttigieg 4%
Judging by the polling data for the states staging Democratic caucuses and primaries through Super Tuesday, Biden appears to be leading so far in states with 1,032 delegates. Warren is leading in states with 128 delegates and Sanders would gain 79 delegates in states where he is leading. The states above where there is not yet any good polling data account for an additional 242 delegates.
Again things could change radically over time. For instance, if Michael Bloomberg really decides to throw his hat into the ring (he has already filed in Alabama as of this writing) he would be running in the same moderate lane as Biden, Buttigieg and Harris. He could take votes away from any or all of of those candidates including Biden, but his entrance to the race would be unlikely to hurt either Warren or Sanders. Again the situation is fluid: it might have already changed with new polls being published by the time you read this. And who knows what other surprises we might have in store.
Bottom line – “it ain’t over till it’s over”.
However, again I cannot place enough emphasis on the fact that the Democratic nominee, whoever that person is, has to do well in the swing states which Trump won in in 2016 and were he is still very competitive. Hopefully that will change for the better over time.
Stand by for future updates to these “State of the Race” articles.
Cajun 11/9/2019