The Biden surge is even bigger than expected. Take a look at the latest polls out which were taken March 1st and 2nd in Super Tuesday states. 538 – Latest Democratic Primary Polls
Keep in mind that many of the responders of these polls provided their responses before Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropped out and for the most part before they both endorsed Joe Biden. Of course it isn’t clear that all of their supporters will vote for Joe, but some certainly will and that is probably not accounted for in these polls.
Another unknown is how well Bloomberg will do relative to Biden. Polls over the last week or so, as well these most recent ones, show Bloomberg’s support dwindling, most likely as a result of his poor debate performances. I expect at least some of Bloomberg’s voters to switch their support over to Biden now that he has assumed the role of The moderate alternative to Bernie Sanders. I am also not sure whether that affect is fully embedded in these most recent polls.
These most polls show Joe to be reasonably close, everything considered, in California – within 7% – 8%. He is also now running even with Sanders in Texas, he is way ahead in North Carolina, Virginia, Alabama, and Arkansas, and he is shown to be winning in Tennessee. Biden also effectively shares the lead with Bloomberg and Sanders in Utah. And again those polls probably don’t take into consideration the Buttigieg/Klobuchar affect and perhaps not the Biden/Bloomberg affect. In addition, expect that Elizabeth Warren to cut into Sanders’ potential delegate count in states where he is leading.
Bottom Line: Expect Joe Biden will do better than many “experts” believed even yesterday, and that the Biden surge will certainly be even better than expected. One thing is clear. Bernie Sanders will not dominate the Super Tuesday delegate count as previously believed. If it were not for early voting in California, I think that it may have been possible for Biden’s Super Tuesday delegate count to be bigger than Sanders’.
That might still happen. The upheaval in the Democratic primary is certainly the biggest I have seen in such a short period of time in my many years as a political observer.
Cajun 3/3/2020