For a while there it appeared that Bernie Sanders would run away with the nomination. And he still might because he has leads in the biggest two biggest delegate states in the Super Tuesday line up, California and Texas. But three things have changed the race. First, we found the Mike Bloomberg who is described in his numerous commercials is not the same man who showed up for the Nevada and South Carolina debates. Second, South Carolina was not only just the firewall Biden’s campaign was hoping for, it was an out and out rout. Third, moderate candidates who see no path to victory are starting to make their exits.
In South Carolina: With 11 candidates on the ballot and receiving votes, 6 of whom were still in the race, Joe Biden received 245,047 votes (48.4%) with his closest competitors being Sanders – 105,197 votes (19.9%) and Tom Steyer (who spent $25 million in the state) 59,993 votes (11.3%). Steyer, along with the other four candidates still in the race received no SC delegates because they failed to achieve the 15% threshold.
When we evaluate the total votes cast in all of the four Democratic contests held thus far, Biden now leads Sanders in total votes earned – 296,536 to 234,140, an advantage for Biden of 62,396 votes. Thus far, of the 54 South Carolina delegates at stake in the primary, Joe has won at least 39 while Sanders has won 11 – the winners of the other four delegates have yet to be determined. Joe is also gained on Bernie’s lead in the total delegate count after 2 primaries and 2 caucuses. Including his 11 South Carolina delegates, Sanders now has 56 delegates while Biden has 54. Once the other 4 South Carolina delegates are awarded, Biden may also be in the overall delegate lead.
Now Super Tuesday looms straight ahead with 1,357 delegates up for grabs. By comparison only 155 pledged delegates have been chosen thus far and 2,467 will be chosen after Super Tuesday. Sanders is ahead in the two richest delegate states – California (415 delegates) and Texas (238 delegates), while Biden leads in the next two biggest states, North Carolina (110 delegates) and Virginia (99 delegates). Based of the current polls it looks like it will be a good day Tuesday for Bernie.
However, that view can be a bit misleading. In the current polls Biden is sharing the moderate votes with five other moderate candidates, especially Bloomberg who has thus far spent a half of a Billion dollars on his candidacy. Sanders on the other hand is sharing the progress votes with only Elizabeth Warren. The latest California poll Sanders gets 31% of the vote, Biden 19%, Warren 18% and Bloomberg 12%. The two progressive candidates are thus expect get 49% of the California vote while the moderates are expected to get 51%. However, with the 15% threshold, if that poll is accurate the delegates will only be divided between Sanders, Biden and Warren and the progressives will get a large majority of the California delegates.
In Texas it is similar situation. In the latest Texas poll, Sanders is expected to get 30% of the vote, Biden 26%, Warren 17%, while Bloomberg is expected to get 13%. Therefore the progressive candidates, Sanders and Warren, are expected to get 47% of the votes while the moderates, Biden and everyone else, are expected to pull down 53% of the vote. However, because Bloomberg and the other moderate candidates would not meet the 15% threshold, the progressive candidates would again pull down a large percentage of the Texas delegates. It is clear that if we go with the current polls, with all of the many moderates in the race they would be providing an advantage to Sanders and Warren.
But wait, not everything is cooked into the cake of the current polls. None of those polls were completed after Biden’s big win in South Carolina. Bloomberg’s entire strategy depends on Biden fading in the first four primary and caucus states with Bloomberg assuming his place as the alternative to Sanders with big Super Tuesday wins. However, given his poor debate performances Bloomberg was already fading in the Super Tuesday state polls. With his big win in South Carolina, Biden’s campaign is not only alive, but he now carries the mantle of the “Stop Bernie” candidate. Expect a portion of Bloomberg’s voters to switch over in support of Biden on Super Tuesday.
In addition, it is becoming evident to the lower performing moderate candidates that they have no path to victory and if they remain in the race they will just be aiding Bernie Sanders Billionaire Tom Steyer has decided that his money would be more useful in backing the eventual Democratic nominee to beat Trump and has withdrawn from the race. Pete Buttigieg has also withdrawn. As first openly gay man to run for president, Mayor of South Bend, IN has done a remarkable job with his campaign and has his whole political career ahead of him. He doesn’t want to be viewed a problem in 2020 when he runs his next campaign. Those withdrawals are not accounted for in the current polls.
Nothing yet from Amy Klobouchar, but she has less of a chance of winning than Buttigieg. She will be gone after Super Tuesday if not before. On the other hand nobody can figure out while Tulsi Gabbard is still sticking around. Her chances of winning are now less than zero. In a perfect world Mike Bloomberg would also clear the way for Biden before Super Tuesday. However after spending $500,000,000 on his Super Tuesday chances, there is no way he is going to withdraw before taking his shot this coming Tuesday. However, Bloomberg is a practical man. If he doesn’t see a big bang for his bucks Tuesday, and I suspect he won’t, he will soon be gone and he will then use his money help a moderate candidate that he believes can best beat Trump. I think we know who that would be.
All of these things, the slide of Bloomberg and the resurgence of Bide, as well the candidates who have withdrawn and others who will likely withdraw after Super Tuesday, will all be in play in the voters’ minds as they cast their votes on Super Tuesday. And all of these factors point to Biden doing better than the present polls are predicting.
Warren should capture a decent amount of delegates Tuesday, and she has sworn to her supporters that she is taking her campaign all of the way to the convention. We’ll see if that happens or not, but as long as she stays in the race, she is likely to absorb some of the votes that would otherwise go to Sanders. Meanwhile, I think we will soon see the moderate candidates pared down to just Biden and Bloomberg, and most likely only Biden. The race between the moderates and the progressives is now on big time. Stay tuned for more updates.
Cajun 3/1/2020