The attached spreadsheet shows the state of the presidential election race based on both the national polls and those of the individual states and their predicted results in Electoral College. Updated Sunday, 10/18/2020.

All of the data was sourced from Nate Silver’s Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight website.  I merely rearranged in what I believe is a more useable form.  Silver and his team are nationally recognized as the best at statistically analyzing, ranking, and compiling data from the numerous political polls. Prior to the 2016 election, his team predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the national vote by 2.7%. She ended up beating Trump in the popular vote by 2.1%.

In determining the chances of a candidate winning a state’s electoral college votes Silver’s team uses state polls weighted for accuracy and other factors including the historical voting patterns in the state, the funds available to the candidates for advertising, current trends, etc.

Notes on this week’s result:  During the last week Joe Biden continued to improve his standing in the race at Trump’s expense.  Over the last four weeks, Biden has increased his weighted average lead in the national polls from 7.3% to 10.6%.  (For reference Silver had Clinton with a 2.7% national lead the night before the 2016 election.)  However, now the race shows signs of solidifying with only small changes in most of the current state polls.  That is a positive sign for Joe Biden because if things don’t change much in the 16 days between now and election day, that would mean that Trump has been unable to eat into Biden’s big lead. (See the link for downloading the Electoral College spreadsheet below.)

Note that on that spreadsheet the state of Ohio, which had previously been switched from Trump’s side of the ledger to the Biden side, has switched back because Trump is now very slightly favored to win the state.  On the other hand, now Biden is very slightly favored to win Georgia and it has been switched to Biden’s side of the ledger for the first time.

Please also note that the spreadsheet indicates Biden has also edged slightly ahead of Trump in the polls in Iowa. I have kept Iowa on the Trump side of the ledger for now because Nate Silver’s team still gives Trump a slight edge to win in the state.

However, for all practical purposes Ohio, Georgia, and Iowa (all states that Trump won by sizable margins in 2016) are now rated as toss ups. They could easily go either way.  Even Texas, which Trump won by almost 10% in the last election, is in play.  The fact that Trump has to fight for votes in these normally Red states points to the deep hole he has dug himself.  What I also find very interesting is that in the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Trump won by razor-thin margins in 2016 to win the Electoral College, Joe Biden has substantial leads.

Electoral College vote status:   States where Biden is favored to win a total 350 electoral votes, states where Trump is favored to win a total of 188 votes. According to Nate Silver’s calculations, Biden has improved his chances of winning the Electoral College over the last four weeks from 75% to 88%. Trump’s chances of winning have decreased from 25% to 12%.  According to Nate Silver, if the poll numbers hold at the current level as we get nearer to election day, Trump’s chances of winning will decrease, presumably because he will have less and less time to recover.

Click on the download button below to view the Electoral College spreadsheet.

NOTE: The attached spreadsheet is best viewed on a standard monitor or using an iPad or tablet.  If using an iPad, tablet, or cell phone, after clicking on the download button below you will be given a choice – “Download” or “View’, Chose the “View” option.

Senate and House Race News:

Nate Silver and his team also analyze the polls and other fundamentals associated with the 2020 Senate and House of Representatives races. The following is their outlook: 

Currently Silver’s team gives the Democrats a 95% chance of retaining control of the House of Representatives.  This margin has not changed over the past four weeks.

Currently, there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats and Independents who caucus with the Democrats in the Senate.  Assuming for a minute Joe Biden wins the White House and Kamala Harris as Vice President would cast the deciding vote in the case of a tie, the Democrats have to flip at least three existing Republican seats and maintain their current seats to take control of the Senate.  However, it is very likely that Democrat Doug Jones will lose his Senate race in Alabama to his Republican opponent meaning that realistically Democrats have to flip four Republican Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber of Congress.  Silver’s team currently rates the overall odds that the Democrats will take control of the Senate at 74%, up from 68% four weeks ago.  

The races in which Democrats have the best chances of winning Republican senate seats are as follows:

Arizona:  Democrat Scott Kelly vs. incumbent Republican Martha McSally.  Average of last 4 polls from highly ranked polling organizations: Kelly +9.3%. Silver’s team gives Kelly a 79% chance of winning.

Colorado:  Democrat John Hickenlooper vs. incumbent Republican Cory Gardner.  Average of last 5 polls from highly ranked polling organizations:  Hickenlooper +8.4%. Silver’s team gives Hickenlooper an 82% chance of winning.

Maine:  Democrat Sara Gideon vs. incumbent Republican Susan Collins. Average of last 4 polls from highly ranked polling organizations:  Gideon +6.25%. Silver’s team gives Gideon a 63% chance of winning.

Iowa:  Democrat Theresa Greenfield vs. incumbent Republican Joni Ernst.  Average of last 4 polls from highly ranked polling organizations:  Greenfield +4.0%. Silver’s team gives Greenfield a 53% chance of winning.

Other possibilities for a Democratic Senate pickups:

Georgia:  Democrat Jon Ossoff vs. incumbent Republican David Perdue. Average of last 4 polls from highly ranked polling organizations:  Tie. Silver’s team gives Perdue a 72% chance of winning.

South Carolina:  Democrat Jamie Harrison vs. incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham. Average of last 4 polls from highly ranked polling organizations:  Graham +1.8%. Silver’s team gives Graham a 78% chance of winning.

Kansas:  Democrat Barbara Bollier vs. incumbent Republican Roger Marshall. Average of last 4 polls from highly ranked polling organizations:  Marshall +2.3%. Silver’s team gives Marshall a 72% chance of winning.

Possibilities of Democrats Winning the Trifecta (winning the White House, Senate, and House)

To effectively pass partisan legislation during the next two years, the Democrats must not only win the presidency; after the election they must also control the Senate and the House of Representatives and they must get rid of the filibuster rule in the Senate.  We have already discussed the individual odds associated with Democrats winning the White House, winning control of the Senate, and winning control of the House of Representatives, but that information only gives us a vague idea of their chances that they accomplish all three of these objectives.  Silver’s team has calculated those odds as well.

Nate Silver’s team gives the Democrats a 70% chance of winning the Trifecta.

I will update this information and the Electoral College spreadsheet every Sunday until election day. Check back on this site – www.cajunscomments.com to see how the race has changed going forward.

Cajun (Rick Guilbeau)    10/18/2020