The attached spreadsheet shows the state of the presidential election race based on both the national polls and those of the individual states and their predicted results in Electoral College. Updated Sunday, 10/11/2020.
This week I have added Nate Silver’s odds of the candidates winning each state’s electoral votes. Silver and his team are nationally recognized as the best at statically analyzing, ranking, and compiling data from the numerous political polls. Prior to the 2016 election, his team predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the national vote by 2.7%. She ended up beating Trump in the popular vote by 2.1%.
In determining the chances of a candidate winning a state’s electoral college votes Silver’s team uses state polls weighted for accuracy and other factors including the historical voting patterns in the state, the funds available to the candidates for advertising, current trends, etc.
I will update the spreadsheet every Sunday until election day. Check back on this site – www.cajunscomments.com to see how the race has changed. You can now also see how the race has changed over the previous weeks.
Data obtained from Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight website.
Notes on this week’s result: Joe Biden continues to improve his standing in the race at Trump’s expense improving his polling numbers in just about every state, even in those where Trump leads. Over the last three weeks Biden has increased his weighted average lead in the national polls from 7.3% to 10.4%. (For reference Silver had Clinton with a 2.7% national lead the night before the election.)
Note that on the attached spreadsheet Ohio has been switched from Trump to the Biden side of the ledger with Biden now slightly favored to win the state.
Electoral College vote status: In states where Biden is favored to win – 352 votes, Where Trump is favored to win – 186 votes. According to Nate Silver’s calculations, Biden has improved is chances of winning the election over the last three weeks from 75% to 86%. I believe there is a good chance this trend will continue.
Please also note that the spreadsheet indicates Biden has also edged slightly ahead of Trump in the polls in both Georgia and Iowa. I have kept these two states on the Trump side of the ledger for now because Silver’s team still gives Trump a slight chance to win in both states. However, keep in mind that Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio all remain firmly in the toss-up category with neither candidate having a real statistical advantage over the other.
What I find very interesting is that in the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin where Trump won by razor-thin margins in 2016 to win the
Electoral College, Joe Biden now has substantial leads.
Click on the download button below to download the spreadsheet.
NOTE: The attached spreadsheet is best viewed on a PC monitor or using an iPad or tablet. If using an iPad, tablet, or cell phone, after clicking on the download button below you will be given a choice – “Download” or “View’, Chose the “View” option.
Cajun (Rick Guilbeau) 10/4/2020
The sad truth is that Biden needs an overwhelming outpouring of votes, so many that the inevitable cheating by republicans will not make the difference.
This nation’s democracy has been under assault for far too long without strong and unyielding opposition. There have been so many instances, proven instances, of attempts to illegally sway past elections in many differing ways. I doubt I have to list them as most are very familiar with many if not all.
There seems no good reason to rehash what has come before, or how these methods remained largely unopposed by democrats, or how the Democratic Party has betrayed its constituency and refused its obligation to we the people by refusing to take an unyielding stance against such undemocratic and blatantly illegal actions, as has, for that matter, the other major party in perpetrating these myriad of crimes against democracy..
Once we rid this government of the single most unfit president in our history, and excised the cancer that is Trump’s appointees, we must rise to insist upon sweeping change before it is too late.