The attached spreadsheet shows the state of the presidential election race based on both the national polls and those of the individual states and their predicted results in the Electoral College. Updated Sunday, 11/3/2020.
This is the final update – my source of data has now frozen their predictions here on election day.
All of the data was sourced from Nate Silver’s Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight website. I merely rearranged the results of their statistical calculations into what I believe is a more useable form. Silver and his team are nationally recognized as the best at statistically analyzing, ranking, and compiling data from all of the numerous political polls. Prior to the 2016 election, his team predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the national vote by 2.7%. She ended up beating Trump in the popular vote by 2.1%.
In determining the chances of a candidate winning a state’s electoral college votes Silver’s team uses state polls weighted for accuracy and other factors including the historical voting patterns in the state, the funds available to the candidates for advertising, current trends, etc.
Notes on this week’s results:
Joe Biden’s lead in the national polls has slipped a bit more versus Donald Trump over the last week. In the 7 weeks previous to this one, Biden had increased his weighted average lead in the national polls from 7.3% to 10.6% and it has now settled back to 8.4%. However, we need to keep in mind that the night before the 2016 election Nate Silver’s team had Hillary Clinton with only a 2.7% national lead, so Joe is now in much better shape as we approach the 2020 contest.
More importantly, the race has tightened a bit in some of the critical battleground states which will decide the election in the Electoral College. However, the net result of those changes don’t seem to substantially benefit either candidate.
For instance, in Pennsylvania Biden’s lead has slipped from 6.8% two weeks ago to 4.7%. However, his chances of winning the state as calculated by Silver’s team has only decreased by 3% – 87% to 84%. In Florida Bidens lead has slipped from 3.9% to 2.5% which also decreased his calculated chances of winning Florida by 2% – 71% to 69%. There were similar but smaller changes in Biden’s lead in Arizona.
On the other hand, over the same two weeks Georgia went from Trump being slightly favored to win by Silver’s team to Trump being very slightly favored. In Ohio Trump’s lead has decreased from 1.1% to 0.8% and Silver’s team now has the race as a toss-up with Trump having only 55% chance of winning. Trump also lost ground in Iowa and Texas where he is now only slightly favored to win. For all practical purposes Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, and Texas (all states that Trump won by sizable margins in 2016) are now rated as virtual tossups. The fact that Trump has to fight for votes in all of these normally Red states points to the deep hole he has dug for himself.
What I also find very interesting is that in the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Trump won by razor-thin margins in 2016 to win the Electoral College, Joe Biden still has substantial leads, though in Pennsylvania not quite as large as I would like.
NOTE: Click on the link below to the Electoral College Spreadsheet below to view the status of the race in every state and how the Electoral College votes are likely to pan out after all of the votes are counted.
Presently Biden is currently favored to win a total of 352 electoral votes, up from 334 last week. Trump is now favored to win only a total of 186 electoral votes, down from 204 last week.
According to Nate Silver’s calculations, Joe’s chances of winning the Electoral College has increased over the last week from 87% to 89%. As indicated on the attached spreadsheet, seven weeks ago Silver’s team gave him only a 75% chance of winning.
Trump has only a 10% chance of remaining in the White House past January 20, 2021. (The addition 1% represents the chance for a tie in Electoral College.
For those of you who don’t trust the polls given the 2016 debacle, you can take some comfort in the fact that Silver’s team gave Trump a 35% chance of winning in that election, so this time around his chances of winning have decreased significantly. Still a 10% (1 out of 10 chances) does not equal 0%. Trump could still win, but his path to victory is extremely difficult. He has to win most of the battleground states where Biden is now favored to win.
So Joe Biden is still in excellent shape compared to where Hillary Clinton was at this time four years ago and there is very little time for the race to tighten further. Perhaps more importantly with only a day before the election it is exceedingly unlikely we will get an “October surprise” (or make that a November surprise) like when FBI Director James Comey reopened an investigation into Hillary’s emails right before the 2016 election. In addition, Trump is still using the same tactics he has employed over the last four years to try to get reelected – spewing lies to urge his base to get to the polls and vote, while he ticks off the most of the rest of the voters. I think that it was Einstein who said, “Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.”
Click on the download button below to view the Electoral College spreadsheet.
NOTE: The attached spreadsheet is best viewed on a standard monitor or using an iPad or tablet. If using an iPad, tablet, or cell phone, after clicking on the download button below you will be given a choice – “Download” or “View’, Chose the “View” option.
Updates on Senate and House Races:
Nate Silver and his team also analyze the polls and other fundamentals associated with the 2020 Senate and House of Representatives races. The following is their outlook:
The House of Representatives: Silver’s team now gives the Democrats a 97% chance of retaining control of the House of Representatives. This is about as good as it gets in the poll analysis business. This margin is a 2% improvement over where it has been for most of the previous seven weeks.
The Senate: Currently, there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats and Independents who caucus with the Democrats in the Senate. Assuming Joe Biden wins the White House and Kamala Harris, as Vice President, would cast the deciding vote in the case of a tie, the Democrats have to flip at least three existing Republican seats and maintain their current seats to take control of the Senate. However, Democrat Doug Jones will likely lose his Senate race in Alabama to his Republican opponent meaning that realistically Democrats have to flip four Republican Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber of Congress. Silver’s team currently still rates the overall odds that the Democrats will take control of the Senate at 75%, up from 68% seven weeks ago.
The races in which Democrats have the best chances of winning Republican senate seats are as follows:
Arizona: Democrat Scott Kelly vs. incumbent Republican Martha McSally. Average of last 4 polls from recent highly ranked polling organizations: Kelly +5.2%. Silver’s team currently gives Kelly a 78% chance of winning, 1% more than last week.
Colorado: Democrat John Hickenlooper vs. incumbent Republican Cory Gardner. Average of last 2 polls from highly ranked polling organizations: Hickenlooper +8.5%. Silver’s team gives Hickenlooper an 84% chance of winning, the same as last week.
Maine: Democrat Sara Gideon vs. incumbent Republican Susan Collins. Average of last 2 recent polls from highly ranked polling organizations: Gideon +2.0%. Silver’s team gives Gideon a 59% chance of winning, 3% less than last week. This race seems to be really tightening and now rated a tossup.
North Carolina: Democrat Cal Cunningham vs. incumbent Republican Thom Tillis. Average of last 4 polls from highly ranked polling organizations: Cunningham +7.0%. Silver’s team gives Cunningham a 68% chance of winning, 2% more than last week.
Iowa: Democrat Theresa Greenfield vs. incumbent Republican Joni Ernst. Average of last 4 polls from highly ranked polling organizations now give Ernst now has a 1.2% lead. Ernst is now the favorite with an 58% chance of winning. Greenfield’s chances of winning decreased by 14% over last week.
Other possibilities for a Democratic Senate pickups:
Georgia: Democrat Jon Ossoff vs. incumbent Republican David Perdue. Average of last 5polls from highly ranked polling organizations: Ossoff +0.6. However, Silver’s team gives Perdue a 57% chance of winning, 13% less than last week. This race looks like it is going to go down to the wire.
South Carolina: Democrat Jamie Harrison vs. incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham. There has been only 2 polls recently from a highly ranked polling organization and when averaged those 2 polls give Graham a 1.5% lead. However Silver’s team now gives Graham a 77% chance of winning, the same as last week probably because Trump has a sizable lead in South Caroline and because Democrats have come close to winning state-wide election in the state but never pulled it off. However, in my opinion this race could still go either way with an excellent Democratic voter turnout.
Kansas: Democrat Barbara Bollier vs. incumbent Republican Roger Marshall. There has been only one poll recently from a highly ranked polling organization: Marshall +4% Silver’s team gives Marshall a 80% chance of winning, 5% more than last week.
Possibilities of Democrats Winning the Trifecta (winning the White House, Senate, and House)
To effectively pass partisan legislation during the next two years, the Democrats must not only win the presidency. After the election they must also control the Senate and the House of Representatives and they must get rid of the filibuster rule in the Senate. We have already discussed the individual odds associated with Democrats winning the White House, winning control of the Senate, and winning control of the House of Representatives, but that information only gives us a vague idea of their chances of accomplishing all three of these objectives.
According to Nate Silver’s team’s Democrats now have a 72% chance of winning the Trifecta, 2% more than two weeks ago.
With the election so close I will now update this information and the Electoral College spreadsheet whenever Silver’s team updates their calculations with a large number of new polls right up to the night before election day. Check back on this site – www.cajunscomments.com to see how the race changes in the last hours before the final votes are cast.
Early States to watch: Due to the time frame during which their votes will be tabulated, decisive vote counts in some states such Pennsylvania, which is critical to both candidates, may not be known the night of the election. However, both North Carolina and Florida, both of which have had record numbers of early voters, should be able to count their votes fairly quickly. Given that both states are in the eastern time zone, their voting locations are likely to be among the earliest to close. Their results, if not extremely close, could give us an early indication of how the race will ultimately play out.
If Biden appear that he win either Florida or North Carolina, where he is currently ahead in close races, Trump’s chances of winning will drop to almost nothing. On the other hand, if Trump wins both Florida and North Carolina, his chances of winning will improve and it will take quite awhile to determine the ultimate winner of the election.
Cajun (Rick Guilbeau) 11/3/2020