I am in a bit of an unusual situation; I am progressive supporting Donald Trump…..  well, sort of anyway.  I certainly not sending him money for his campaign, I don’t attend his rallies, or visit his website.  I didn’t even vote for him in our state’s primary and I will definitely not vote for him in the general election if he makes it that far.  So why do I say I’m supporting him?  That’s because I really want The Donald to win the Republican nomination.

When he first came on the nomination scene I hated him.  Brash and totally full of himself, he was insulting someone different every day.  He stirred up the hate that lay dormant in too many Americans and brought it raging to the surface.  He spoke to their darkest angles, and they answered.

He set up undocumented Mexican immigrates as scapegoats for dissatisfied American workers and made promises that every thinking person knew he couldn’t keep.  It embarrassed me that the rest of the world could see that someone whose chief communication method was demagoguery was in the running to be President of the United States, and he was doing relatively well.

However, it is said that everything in life has its advantages and its disadvantages. I began to notice that having Trump running for President, and doing well, definitely had its advantages.

The first thing I began to appreciate was that his candidacy spotlighted the dark underbelly of the Republican base which I always knew was just below the surface.  Trump appealed directly to their racism, xenophobia and misogynistic tendencies and it worked like a charm.  This for some reason gave me a sense of satisfaction that the entire country could now see what drives many everyday Republicans to vote as they do.

The enormous ego of Donald Trump kept him from researching and studying the topics and issues that any Presidential candidate should understand.  So he was constantly “winging it” and making major gaffes.  This added some humor to my life and I chuckled every time the political “experts” claimed that “Trump had gone too far this time” only to find that he not only survived, but that his popularity continued to grow.  I liked attributing Trump growing popularity to the lack of intelligence and lack of class of his supporters.

Trump’s popularity among the Republican base and the absolute horror with which the Republican elite viewed his candidacy highlighted an ongoing civil war for the soul of the Republican Party.  Nothing warms the heart of someone like me as a heated battle in the opposing party which threatens to split it in two.

As the very real possibility that Trump could actually win the Republican nomination began to become clear to everyone, including me, I became convinced that he would be the easiest Republican to beat in the general election. My logic is that while Trump apparently appeals to perhaps enough Republicans to win his party’s nomination, he would make a very poor general election candidate.

Trump has extremely high negatives, especially among women.  In one poll women gave him dissatisfaction ratings as high as 73% and women cast 52% of the votes.  Almost 50% of Republican women gave Trump dissatisfaction ratings.  He has also already totally alienated three growing demographics which are critical to winning the White House: Hispanics, blacks and single women.

The Donald is apparently is too arrogant to actually study the issues in any depth.  So while his often strange off cuff answers to the questions posed to him by the press seemed to taken in stride by his dedicated followers, I betting that they won’t appreciated by the moderate voters in several swing states who often decide Presidential elections.

So in a strange way I started pulling for Trump.  I would chuckle to myself when he did or said something outrageous and the TV commentators would shake their collective talking heads and say, “Well, he’s gone too far this time!”  Then I would l laugh out loud when Trump’s poll numbers rose time and time again after each outrageous statement.  Not only did my favorite opponent continue to survive, but his continuing saga also provided sad commentaries on the intelligence levels of Trump’s supporters, and I loved it.

So after a while found myself actually hoping Trump would win the Republican nomination.  After all, don’t you always want to run against the class clown in any election?  So now I am pleased anytime he screws up and doubly pleased when he escapes unscathed.

Now, however, there are two scenarios which cause me some concern.  The first is that Trump will sooner or later actually go too far which will allow Ted Cruz to overtake him in the delegate count before the end of the primaries allowing Cruz to win the Republican nomination in a contested convention.  Last week Trump’s “women who have abortions should be punished” gaffe, along with his strange statements about abandoning NATO and encouraging nations like South Korea and Japan to develop nuclear weapons, may have given Cruz the opportunity he needed.

Time will tell whether Trump has exhausted the last of his nine lives after such a disastrous week, but the alternative isn’t all that bad.  Cruz, everyone remembers, is the idiot who was largely responsible for shutting down the government for two weeks in 2013.  He is the one of the public faces of the do nothing Republican Congress which has earned some of the lowest poll numbers in US history.  His Republican Congressional colleagues hate his guts and he won’t get strong support for establishment Republicans should he win the nomination.

Cruz’s win in Wisconsin will make it very hard for Trump to clinch the nomination before the convention and if Cruz can come close to equaling Trump’s delegate count, I think that Cruz’s superior organization can secure the nomination for him after the first ballot in the convention.

If that happens my favorite opponent will be gone, but all will not be lost.  Cruz will also be a terrible candidate. In addition, Trump will not take that abuse lying down.  If thinks the “Republican establishment has been unfair to him, he will retaliate.  I would be at all surprised in that scenario if he decides to run as the candidate of an established third party which has already reserved spots on the ballots in all 50 states.  That, of course, would split the Republican support and almost guarantee a Democratic victory in November.

Another possible scenario really bothers me.  That scenario involves neither Cruz nor Trump securing enough delegates to win on the first ballot of the convention.   Then could see the Republican establishment somehow manipulating the convention delegates and convention rules to insure that neither of those two candidates becomes the party’s nominee.

I believe that for once Trump is right; Cruz is the Republican establishment’s Trojan horse.  They want to use Cruz to stop Trump from securing the nomination and then will try substituting some establishment lap dog as the nominee.  And they are right; if someone like John Kasich were to win the nomination I believe he would be much harder to beat in the general election, all things being equal.

However, in a situation like that all things will not be equal. Rest assured that such an outcome would tear the Republican party apart and I am not sure that Humpty Dumpty could ever be put back together a again.  Cruz and Trump would be united in their anger and their supporters would feel that the election was stolen from them.  (And of course they would be right.)  I would be willing to wager that sizable number of them would not vote for the Republican nominee.

So you see, with my favorite candidate we have the best of two worlds. If Trump wins the Republican nomination they will have one of the worse candidates in recent history. On the other hand, if he loses he will cause such such a stink that the ultimate Republican nominee will have trouble competing in the general election. That’s why I love to hate Donald Trump.

Cajun   4/7/16