This is a non-biased insight into the state of the Democratic primary race and the possible outcomes of general election going into the upcoming second round Democratic debates based on the most recent poll data.  (Note: Polls are a snapshot in time and the political winds can and often do change over the course of an election cycle.)

I think that it is fair to say that most Democratic voters are fixated one element of the race above all others and that is they want Donald Trump removed from power as soon as possible. If that doesn’t happen as a result of impeachment, they want to make sure that his ouster from the White House is the result of the 2020 presidential election. So understandably one of the most important quality they are looking for in a potential Democratic nominee the candidate who is most capable of beating Trump in the general election. So we will cover that  aspect first.

These are the most recent normally accurate polls on that subject. These are all nationwide polls.  Each line was essentially a separate poll pitting one of the highest polling Democratic candidates against Trump in a one on one contest. The title lines lists the polling organization, the accuracy of the poll measured on a scale from A+ to D-, followed by the dates between which the poll was conducted.

Nationwide – Fox News (A) 7/17 – 7/22

Biden 49% – Trump 39%:  Biden +10

Sanders 46% – Trump 40%:  Sanders + 6

Warren 41% – Trump 42%:  Trump +1

Harris 40% – Trump 41%:  Trump +1

Nationwide – NBC News/Wall Street Journal (A-) 7/7 – 7/9

Biden 51% – Trump 42%:  Biden +9

Sanders 50% – Trump 43%:  Sanders +7

Warren 48% – Trump 43%:  Warren +5

Harris 45% – Trump 44%:  Harris +1

Nationwide – Emerson College (B+) 7/7 – 7/9

Biden 53% – Trump 47%:  Biden +6

Sanders 51% – Trump 49%:  Sanders +2

Warren 49% – Trump 51%:  Trump +2

Harris 49% – Trump 51%:  Trump +2

Buttigieg 49% – Trump 51%:  Trump +2

All of the other nationwide polls were conducted before the beginning of July, but they basically show similar results. Based on these recent polls it appears that Biden in the most viable candidate against Trump followed by Sanders.  Next in line is Warren followed by Harris, but please note that both of these candidates are depicted as losing to Trump more often than not.  Buttigieg was included in only one of these three polls, so it is hard to get as accurate a picture of his chances against Trump, but in that one poll he isn’t predicted to have very good result in either of the polls where he was included.

Unfortunately we can’t forget that while Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by a rather large margin, Trump was able win the Electoral College vote by narrowly winning a few key states.  Therefore it is equally important to measure the strength of Democrat candidates against Trump in those key swing states.  Unfortunately, that kind of recent statewide polling data is somewhat scarce of yet, but the following is what is all that is currently available.

Ohio – Quinnipiac Univ. (A-) 7/17 – 7/22

Biden 50% – Trump 42%:  Biden +8

Sanders 45% – Trump 46%:  Trump +1

Warren 45% – Trump 46%:  Trump +1

Harris 44% – Trump 44%:  Even

Buttigieg 44% – Trump 44%:  Even

Booker 43% – Trump 44%:  Trump +1

Maine – Gravis Marketing (C+) 6/24

Biden 54% – Trump 46%:  Biden +8

Sanders 53 – Trump 47%:  Sanders +6

Warren 52% – Trump 48%:  Warren +4

Harris 52% – Trump 48%:  Harris +4

Buttigieg 51% – Trump 49%:  Buttigieg +2

South Carolina – Change Research (C+) 6/17 – 6/22

Biden 38% – Trump 54%: Trump +16

Sanders 34% – Trump 54%:  Trump +20

Harris 33% – Trump 54%:  Trump +21

Booker 32% – Trump 54%:  Trump +22

North Carolina – Public Policy Polling (B) 6/17 – 6/18

Biden 50% – Trump 42%:  Biden +8

Sanders 48% – Trump 47%:  Trump +1

Warren 46% – Trump 48%:  Trump +2

Harris 46% – Trump 47%:  Trump +1

Buttigieg 44% – Trump 47%:  Trump +2

Booker 43% – Trump 44%:  Trump +1

I would rather have data from states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida which proved important in the 2016 election, but to some extent Ohio data can be used to standout for the three states in the mid-west where the blue collar vote is important.  For comparison Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin by a total of less than 80,00 votes total while he won Ohio by 8.8% or over 455K votes.  The current Ohio poll figures bode well for Democratic candidates in key states in the Mid-West with Biden winning instead by 8% and the other Democratic candidates making it a close race.

The other polls are over a month old so keep that in mind.  Right now it looks as if North Carolina by 173K votes or 3.5%, buy as of now this traditionally red state seems to be in play. It is good news with Biden leading Trump by 8% and the other candidates making it a close race. Maine has only 3 electoral votes, so it is pretty insignificant unless the Electoral College is very close. The current poll data for the Pine Tree State is no surprise since Hillary beat Trump in 2016 by 2.9%,(but only 22K votes), but Biden challenging Sanders in his own state is a bit of a surprise.  Lastly, the only thing that the South Carolina poll data tells us is that nobody is going to beat Trump in this ruby red state.

Of course it doesn’t matter if a candidate can beat Trump in the General Election unless he/she can win the Democratic nomination first.  Here are the most recent nationwide polls for the Democratic primary:

Nation Wide – YouGov. (B) 7/21 – 7/23

Biden 25%

Sanders 13%

Warren 18%

Harris 9%

Buttigieg 6%

Castro 3%

Gabbard 2%

Yang 2%

Booker 2%

O’Rourke 2%

(Others 1% or lower)

Nationwide  Fox News (A) 7/21 – 7/23

Biden 33%

Sanders 15%

Warren 10%

Harris 10%

Buttigieg 5%

Klobouchar 3%

Yang 3%

Booker 2%

Hickenlooper 2%

O’Rourke 2%

(Others 1% or lower)

Nation Wide – Morning Consult (B-) 7/15 – 7/21

Biden 33%

Sanders18%

Warren 14%

Harris 13%

Buttigieg 5%

Yang 2%

Booker 2%

O’Rourke 3%

(Others 1% or lower)

Nation Wide – NBC News/Wall Street Journal (A-) 7/7 – 7/9

Biden 26%

Sanders13%

Warren 19%

Harris 13%

Buttigieg 7%

Yang 2%

Booker 1%

O’Rourke 2%

(Others 1% or lower)

Nation Wide – YouGov (B) 7/7 – 7/9

Biden 22%

Sanders 11%

Warren 17%

Harris 14%

Buttigieg 5%

Castro  2%

O’Rourke 2%

(Others 1% or lower)

Nation Wide – Emerson College (B+) 7/6 – 7/8

Biden  30%

Sanders 15%

Warren 15%

Harris 15%

Buttigieg 5%

Yang 3%

Gabbard 2%

Booker 2%

(Others 1% or lower)

The data from these polls is for the most part self-explanatory.   Biden is still in the lead and seems to have recovered somewhat from his less than exemplary first debate. He remains anywhere from 11% to 18% ahead of his closest rival depending on the poll.  Warren has made some strides since the first debate and is now relatively even with Sanders as they battle for the second spot.  Harris poll performance improved considerably after the first debate, but seems to have been slipping back a bit in recent polls. However, she has taken over firm control of fourth place over Buttigieg who remains solidly in fifth place. On the other hand she still isn’t challenging either Warren or Sanders.

In every poll a few of the other candidates score 2% and occasionally even occasionally even in the 3% range, but none of them do so with any consistency. The top 5 positions seem to be set and it would appear that unless one of the other 15 contenders does something to really catch the eyes of the voters in the second debate, those first 5 will continue to dominate and I think we will see some of the competitors start to drop out of the race due to lack of support.

I think we can look for the field to be whittled down significantly after the first few state primary events if history is any indication.  Even more importantly, candidates who do well in the early state primaries usually have an advantage going forward so the polling in those early states will grow more significant going forward.

As usual the Iowa caucuses will be the first primary event and it is scheduled for February 5, 2020, less than six months from now.  Here is the latest Iowa poll:

Iowa – YouGov.. (B) 7/9 – 7/18

Biden 24%

Sanders 19%

Warren  17%

Harris 16%

Buttigieg 7%

Klobouchar 4%

Booker 3%

(Others 1% or lower)

The candidates have been spending a lot time and money in Iowa, polling results are tighter than what we are seeing in the national polls.

Next comes New Hampshire on February 11, 2020:

New Hampshire – YouGov.. (B) 7/9 – 7/18

Biden 27%

Sanders 20%

Warren  18%

Harris 12%

Buttigieg 7%

O’Rourke 2%

Gabbard 2%

(Others 1% or lower

New Hampshire – U. of New Hampshire (B) 7/8 – 7/15

Biden 24%

Sanders 19%

Warren  19%

Harris 9%

Buttigieg 10%

Booker 2%

O’Rourke 2%

(Others 1% or lower)

As you can see there are a couple of traditionally accurate recent polls available for the state of New Hampshire and both indicate a fairly tight race.  It remains to be seen if Sanders and Warren who are both doing well can catch up with Biden before the primary election.

The third Democratic Primary event is Nevada Caucuses scheduled for February 22^nd.

Nevada –  Monmouth Univ. (A) 6/6 – 6/11

Biden 36%

Sanders 13%

Warren  19%

Harris 6%

Buttigieg 7%

Booker 2%

(Others 1% or lower)

This is the most recent Nevada poll, but you it well over a month old and a lot of water has gone under the bridge since it was current.

Finishing up the month of February is the South Carolina primary election on the 29^th.

South Carolina – Monmouth Univ. (A+) 7/18 – 7/22

Biden 39%

Sanders 10%

Warren  9%

Harris 12%

Buttigieg 5%

Booker 2%

(Others 1% or lower)

South Carolina – YouGov.. (B) 7/9 – 7/18

Biden 39%

Sanders 17%

Warren  12%

Harris 12%

Buttigieg 5%

Booker 3%

(Others 1% or lower)

Now doubt about it; Biden is far out in the lead in South Carolina.

March 3, 2020 is the biggest day of Democratic primary season – Super Tuesday when 15 states, including a couple with the largest delicate counts, cast their primary votes.  Here we will take a look at the most important states in the Super Tuesday line up based on their delegate counts.

California – 416 delegates:

California – YouGov (B) 7/9 – 7/18

Biden 24%

Sanders 16%

Warren  19%

Harris 23%

Buttigieg 6%

(Others 1% or lower)

California – Quinnipiac U. (A-) 7/10 – 7/15

Biden 21%

Sanders 18%

Warren 16%

Harris 23%

Buttigieg 3%

Yang 2%

(Others 1% or lower)

Texas –  228 delegates

Texas. – YouGov. (B) 7/9 – 7/18

Biden 27%

Sanders 12%

Warren  16%

Harris 12%

Buttigieg 4%

(Others 1% or lower)

North Carolina – 110 delegates

North Carolina – Emerson College (B+) 5/31 -6/3

Biden 39%

Sanders 22%

Warren 15%

Harris 5%

Buttigieg 8%

O’Rourke 3%

(Others 1% or lower)

*Caution: Old poll

Georgia – 205 delegates

Georgia – SurveyMonkey (D-) 7/2 – 7/16

Biden 31%

Sanders 12%

Warren 13%

Harris 15%

Buttigieg 5%

Yang 4%

Castro  3%

(Others 1% or lower)

Virginia -99 delegates

Virginia – Hampton Univ. (C+) 5/29 – 6/6

Biden 36%

Sanders 17%

Warren 13%

Harris 7%

Buttigieg 11%

O’Rourke 3%

Booker 2%

(Others 1% or lower)

*Caution: Old poll

Massachusetts – 91 delegates

Massachusetts – Suffolk Univ. (B+) 6/5 – 6/9

Biden 22%

Sanders 6%

Warren 10%

Harris 5%

Buttigieg 8%

(Others 1% or lower)

*Caution: Old poll

Those 6 states will send a large majority of the delegates appointed on Super Tuesday.  By the end of the day Tuesday, March 3, 2020 we will have a much better idea which candidates still have a decent chance of becoming the Democratic presidential nominee

Note: The poll information provided in this article was gathered from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website.  Silver’s organization does an excellent job of compiling all of the recent political polls in one place You can visit the site for a more expansive view of earlier polls in the areas covered here as well as those covering other states  and other areas of interest.  The site is updated daily.  FiveThirtyEight also rates the quality of the polls of each of the polling organizations from A+ to D- giving the viewer an understanding of accuracy of the data being displayed.  This is the grade you see posted with each of the polls sighted.

Cajun     7/28/19