The attached spreadsheet shows the state of the presidential election race based on both the national polls and those of the individual states and their predicted results in the Electoral College. Updated Saturday, 10/25/2020.
All of the data was sourced from Nate Silver’s Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight website. I merely rearranged in what I believe is a more useable form. Silver and his team are nationally recognized as the best at statistically analyzing, ranking, and compiling data from the numerous political polls. Prior to the 2016 election, his team predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the national vote by 2.7%. She ended up beating Trump in the popular vote by 2.1%.
In determining the chances of a candidate winning a state’s electoral college votes Silver’s team uses state polls weighted for accuracy and other factors including the historical voting patterns in the state, the funds available to the candidates for advertising, current trends, etc.
Notes on this week’s result: For the first time in the weeks that I have been closely following the polling data Joe Biden has started to slip a bit in the polls versus Donald Trump, especially in important battle ground states. In the last four weeks previous to this one, Biden had increased his weighted average lead in the national polls from 7.3% to 10.6%. (For reference Silver had Clinton with a 2.7% national lead the night before the 2016 election.) However, over the last week that lead has decreased to 9.1%.
More importantly Joe’s lead is starting to slip slightly in critical battleground states which will decide the election in the Electoral College. For instance, in Pennsylvania his lead has slipped for 6.8% to 5.7%. However, his chances of winning the state as calculated by Silver’s team has only decreased by 1% – 87% to 86%. In Florida Bidens lead has slipped from 3.8% to 2.6% which also decreased his calculated chances of winning by 4% – 71% to 67%. There were similar changes in Biden’s lead in Arizona.
Georgia went from Biden being very slightly favored by Silver’s team to Trump being very slightly favored to win. Trump increased his lead a bit in Ohio, but he lost ground in Iowa and Texas. However, for all practical purposes Ohio, Georgia, and Iowa (all states that Trump won by sizable margins in 2016) are now rated as toss ups. Even Texas, which Trump won by almost 10% in the last election, is in play. The fact that Trump has to fight for votes in these normally Red states points to the deep hole he has dug himself.
What I also find very interesting is that in the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Trump won by razor-thin margins in 2016 to win the Electoral College, Joe Biden still has substantial leads.
NOTE: the spreadsheet indicates Biden has also edged slightly ahead of Trump in the polls in Iowa and Georgia. I have kept these two states on the Trump side of the ledger because Nate Silver’s team still gives Trump a slight edge to win in the state.
(See the link for downloading the Electoral College spreadsheet below to see these changes.)
So the race is tightening a bit, but there is no need to worry, at least not yet.
Biden is still favored to win a total of 334 electoral votes while Trump is favored to win a total of 204 votes. According to Nate Silver’s calculations, Joe’s chances of winning the Electoral College has only decreased by 1% since last week – from 88% to 87%. Also recall that five weeks ago Silver’s team gave him only a 75% chance of winning.
Why is the race tightening? I guess we shouldn’t be surprised; traditionally presidential races tighten in the final two weeks before the election. Why it is happening this time around is really not known for sure. It could be that some Republicans who disapprove of Trump’s job as president have finally decided that their ideological objectives and/or their pocketbooks are more important then their person preferences. Or maybe, the recent polls are off a bit. Right now it doesn’t matter.
Joe Biden is still in excellent shape compared to where Hillary Clinton was at this time four years ago and it is unlikely we will get an “October surprise” this time around like when FBI Director James Comey reopened an investigation into Hillary’s emails right before the election. We only need to be concerned if this tightening becomes a trend over the next 8 days and really intensifies.
Click on the download button below to view the Electoral College spreadsheet.
NOTE: The attached spreadsheet is best viewed on a standard monitor or using an iPad or tablet. If using an iPad, tablet, or cell phone, after clicking on the download button below you will be given a choice – “Download” or “View’, Chose the “View” option.
Updates on Senate and House Races:
Nate Silver and his team also analyze the polls and other fundamentals associated with the 2020 Senate and House of Representatives races. The following is their outlook:
The House of Representatives: Currently Silver’s team gives the Democrats a 96% chance of retaining control of the House of Representatives. This margin is a slight 1% improvement over where it has been for the previous four weeks.
The Senate: Currently, there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats and Independents who caucus with the Democrats in the Senate. Assuming Joe Biden wins the White House and Kamala Harris as Vice President would cast the deciding vote in the case of a tie, the Democrats have to flip at least three existing Republican seats and maintain their current seats to take control of the Senate. However, Democrat Doug Jones will likely lose his Senate race in Alabama to his Republican opponent meaning that realistically Democrats have to flip four Republican Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber of Congress. Silver’s team currently still rates the overall odds that the Democrats will take control of the Senate at 74%, up from 68% five weeks ago.
The races in which Democrats have the best chances of winning Republican senate seats are as follows:
Arizona: Democrat Scott Kelly vs. incumbent Republican Martha McSally. Average of last 4 polls from highly ranked polling organizations: Kelly +9.3%. However, several lower ranked polls have recently projected a McSally win. Silver’s team currently gives Kelly a 78% chance of winning, 1% less than last week.
Colorado: Democrat John Hickenlooper vs. incumbent Republican Cory Gardner. Average of last 5 polls from highly ranked polling organizations: Hickenlooper +8.4%. Several low ranked polls recently indicated the same kind of lead. Silver’s team gives Hickenlooper an 84% chance of winning, a 1% increase over last week.
Maine: Democrat Sara Gideon vs. incumbent Republican Susan Collins. Average of last 4 polls from highly ranked polling organizations: Gideon +6.2 dx%. Silver’s team gives Gideon a 62% chance of winning, 1% less than last week.
North Carolina: Democrat Cal Cunningham vs. incumbent Republican Thom Tillis. Average of last 5 polls from highly ranked polling organizations: Cunningham +5.2%. Silver’s team gives Cunningham a 64% chance of winning, 2% less than last week.
Iowa: Democrat Theresa Greenfield vs. incumbent Republican Joni Ernst. Average of last 9 polls from highly ranked polling organizations now give Greenfield now has 1.9% of winning. Silver’s team gives Greenfield a 56% chance of winning, up 3% over last week.
Other possibilities for a Democratic Senate pickups:
Georgia: Democrat Jon Ossoff vs. incumbent Republican David Perdue. Average of last 6 polls from highly ranked polling organizations: Purdue +0.9. Silver’s team gives Perdue a 70% chance of winning, 2% less than last week.
South Carolina: Democrat Jamie Harrison vs. incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham. Average of last 4 polls from highly ranked polling organizations: Graham +1.4%. Silver’s team gives Graham a 77% chance of winning, 1% less than last week.
Kansas: Democrat Barbara Bollier vs. incumbent Republican Roger Marshall. Average of last 4 polls from highly ranked polling organizations: Marshall +1.5%. Silver’s team gives Marshall a 75% chance of winning, 3% more than last week.
Possibilities of Democrats Winning the Trifecta (winning the White House, Senate, and House)
To effectively pass partisan legislation during the next two years, the Democrats must not only win the presidency; after the election they must also control the Senate and the House of Representatives and they must get rid of the filibuster rule in the Senate. We have already discussed the individual odds associated with Democrats winning the White House, winning control of the Senate, and winning control of the House of Representatives, but that information only gives us a vague idea of their chances of accomplishing all three of these objectives. Silver’s team has calculated those odds as well.
Nate Silver’s team gives the Democrats approximately a 70% chance of winning the Trifecta.
I will update this information and the Electoral College spreadsheet every Sunday until election day. Check back on this site – www.cajunscomments.com to see how the race has changed going forward.
Cajun (Rick Guilbeau) 10/25/2020