Every expert on North Korea and its Pyongyang government has long predicted that that Kim Jong Un will never voluntarily give up his country’s nuclear weapons or its long range missile program. Kim and North Korea’s military leaders believe their arsenal of nuclear tipped missiles is their only guarantee of their government’s continued survival and that their very lives depend on them. Since he replaced his father as North Korea dictator, Kim Jong Un has has thrown much of his poor country’s resources into the further development of those weapons even as sanctions continued to take a heavy toll on North Korea’s economy.
Even Dan Coats, Trump’s Director of National Intelligence, in testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee stated: “We currently assess that North Korea will seek to retain its WMD (weapons of mass destruction) capabilities and is unlikely to completely give up its nuclear weapons and production capability because its leaders ultimately view nuclear weapons as critical to regime survival. Our assessment is bolstered by our observations of some activity that is inconsistent with full denuclearization.”
However, in embarking on trip to Vietnam to meet for a second time with Kim Jong Un, Trump characteristically chose to ignore the warnings of his intelligence agencies. He obviously believed that his “unparalleled negotiating skills” and the “close relationship” he has established with Kim would allow him to make further progress on a nuclear disarmament deal with North Korea that only he, the greatest negotiator in the history of the world, could achieve.
It is further evidence of his narcissistic personality disorder that when Trump is not happy with the reality that he faces, he resorts to creating a world of “facts” of his own choosing. Whether he actually believes in these fantasies or simply creates them out of whole cloth for the benefit of his most ardent supporters is irrelevant because his actions are often based on the imaginary scenarios he has created for himself.
As you may recall, nothing substantial came of the first summit in Singapore between Trump and Kim. Before the meeting North Korea had ceased their nuclear and missile testing, but they had already made their point. We and the rest of the world already knew that they possessed nuclear weapons and that they had recently exhibited in tests that they had a missile capable of hitting the continental United States. The document the two men signed at the conclusion of the Singapore summit only stated that they would “work towards” the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and further committed the two countries to “peace and prosperity” – meaningless sentiments at best.
During that first meeting Trump agreed that the US would no longer participate with South Korea in joint military exercises which have long been a point of severe irritation for the North Korean leadership. This unilateral concession was universally condemned by US military experts and even some Republican Congressmen because it is only through these joint exercises that the militaries of the US and South Korea can maintain their readiness to wage war against North Korea should that ever become necessary.
After the summit Trump said that Kim had agreed to begin winding down some of North Korea’s missile bases including the dismantlement of the Sohae missile engine testing and satellite launching site, but this agreement was never put in writing. It appears that North Korea put at least some effort into partially dismantling the site and did not test any missile engines during the period between the two summits. However, it is unknown whether North Korea viewed the base as essential to their missile program at the time Kim promised to dismantle it.
True to form, Trump went to great lengths to grossly overstate the success of the Singapore summit saying at one point that he saw “eye to eye” with Kim and that the results were “better than anybody could imagine”. He also said at one point that Kim wrote him “wonderful letters” and that he and Kim “fell in love”. Several times Trump has claimed from deep within his world of make believe that if Barrack Obama were still President we would now be at war with North Korea. In contrast Trump tweeted on the day after returning from his Singapore summit, “There is no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea,” a blatant lie if there ever was one.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, there have been numerous verified reports that in the interval between the two summits that North Korea has continued to refine the fissionable material necessary to build more nuclear weapons, enough to make at least six additional nuclear bombs. They have also continued to expand at least two of their major missile bases hidden deep in tunnels in the mountains near the North Korea-China border. In addition, since the Singapore summit commercial satellites have uncovered twenty secret missile bases previously unknown to the general public which military analysists point to as proof that Kim has no intention of dialing back his missile program.
During the recent summit in Hanoi, Kim offered to dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear complex near the North Korean capital of Pyongyang as well as the Sohae missile engine testing and satellite launching site in return for the removal of UN sanctions. As we know now Trump rejected this offer as not going far enough and walked out of the meeting without any agreement.
Perhaps Kim was already expecting the second summit to fail even before he left for Vietnam. Almost immediately after the conclusion of the Vietnam summit satellite images spotted evidence that the Sohae missile engine testing and satellite launch site was being reconstructed. This is the site that Trump said that Kim vowed to shut down during the Singapore summit. It also appears that the work on the reconstruction started before the Hanoi summit began.
Reality has a nasty habit of intruding into the most carefully built fantasy worlds. Trump says that he still believes that he might be able to yet make a deal with Kim. However, the reality that the North Koreans never had any intention of giving up their nuclear and long range missile programs and that all along Kim was simply trying to get sanctions relief without making any major concessions of his own has hit Trump right between the eyes whether he wants to admit it or not, and everyone with any understanding of the situation knows that this is exactly what has occurred.
In a very recent development, our commercial satellites have detected activity at the Sohae site which appears to indicate that North Korea is preparing to test fire a missile or launch a satellite from that facility. Either event would be equivalent of Kim extending his middle finger in Trump’s face – probably in response to the embarrassment he felt when Trump abruptly walked out of their talks. If such a test or launch does occur, Kim’s meaning could not be more clear; Trump is still sighting the absence of such events as sign that there is still a chance for a deal with North Korea.
The myth of Donald J. Trump as the unparalleled negotiator has been again shredded in full view of the entire world. Unlike his previous dealing with his contractors and partners in his business career, Trump should have learned by now that even as the leader of the most powerful country on earth he cannot bully and/or sweet talk the leaders of other countries into compliance with his wishes. Personal relations has its place in international diplomacy, but one cannot persuade the leader of another country to act against his and/or his country’s best interest.
Kim Jong Un has played Trump for a fool. He has strung Trump along and he might attempt to continue to do so. As a young untried leader on the national stage he has persuaded Trump to grant him what no other American president would ever agree to grant to his much more seasoned father and grandfather, face to face meetings with the President of the United States and international recognition that goes with that honor. Without making any major concessions of his own, he persuaded Trump to agree to not continue our yearly military exercises with South Korea. Just a few days ago after the Hanoi summit, Trump again cancelled planned US-South Korean military exercises, obviously to maintain his dwindling hope of a future agreement with Kim.
What’s next on Trump’s North Korean agenda? I predict there will be no third summit. Kim knows the jig is up and that his hope that he could persuade Trump to reduce sanctions is a lost cause. Kim will probably therefore concentrate on expanding his nuclear and especially his long range missile capabilities. Trump will sooner or later come to conclusion that Kim was never serious about giving up his vital assets and will move to impose even greater economic sanctions on North Korea. Then Kim will certainly go back to testing any new capabilities that his scientists have developed in the interim.
However, Kim knows that in order for any sanctions to be truly effective, China, North Korea’s most important trading partner by far, must be willing to enforce them. Trump is engaged in a trade war with China and is in the process of implementing tariffs on imported Chinese goods while demanding major trade concessions which Chinese leaders have no intention of making. Under the circumstances China has no incentives to really crack down on its trade with North Korea though they will certainly continue to claim that they are fully enforcing the tariffs. Even after the trade war is over, China is unlikely to fully implement UN and US sanctions because it is in their best interest to maintain their leverage over future North Korean behavior
So what is on the horizon after Trump manages to install even harsher sanctions on North Korea. I predict that the Trump administration will gradually let the North Korean situation fade into the background and hope no one notices. The issue will very likely to be low on Trump’s agenda and I doubt if he will speak of it again publicly unless he is forced to. Once he totally understands that Kim has been leading him around by the nose and that a real agreement with the murderous North Korean dictator was never possible, Trump will have no incentive to remind everyone of the embarrassment he suffered as a result of this entire fiasco.
Cajun 3/10/2019