Donald Trump and Ted Cruz occupy the two top positions in just about every Republican Presidential nomination poll. Between them they currently own over 50% of the potential Republican primary votes. When you add in the support for the Carson and Fiorina, the anti-establishment candidates account for almost two thirds of the votes in the Republican primaries. The revolt of the Republican rank and file against their establishment masters is in full swing. Is the current Republican nomination race the vehicle which will cause a permanent schism in the GOP?

At this point it appears that for all practical purposes Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are in the driver’s seat and Republicans leaders are openly cringing at the very real possibility that one of these two men could very possibility win the Republican nomination. They view Donald Trump an obnoxious blowhard without real substance who would inflict permanent damage to their party if he wins the nomination. On the other hand it would be hard to find a Republican who is more disliked by his GOP colleagues than rebellious Ted Cruz who twice led successful charges to shut down the government to the detriment of his party. If either of those two were to win the nomination, The Republican establishment would be torn between actively supporting someone they would consider a candidate that could destroy their brand even if he were to win the general election and essentially conceding the 2016 Presidential election by withholding their full support.

Unless a miracle happens and Rubio can quickly move up from also ran status to a leading contender, the die is cast; it’s either Cruz or Trump. The only way that I can see an alternative is if Trump and Cruz were to split most of the votes and the other candidates win just enough delegates to keep either of them from wining the nomination on the first vote at the Republican National Convention. If that were to happen, all of the delegates to the convention would released from their pledges to vote for specific candidates after that first vote and the convention would revert to one giant “smoke filled room” where someone other than Trump or Cruz might emerge the ultimate Republican nominee.

While this scenario might give establishment Republicans hope of fielding a “respectable” Presidential candidate, it also has a strong potential of permanently splitting the GOP into two fragments which might never be reassembled. Imagine the anger of the majority of the Republican voters who would rightly feel that the nomination was stolen from them. It is at least conceivable that they would abandon the Republican Party and start a party of their own.

So the Republican nomination is really a battle for the heart and soul of the GOP. On one side are the pragmatic establishment Republicans, mostly representing business interests, who understand that the Party can not continue to be relevant going forward without better appealing to voting groups who make up ever growing segments of the voting population. On the other side are mostly Southern conservatives and blue collar Republicans who are much more concerned with social issues. They are unwilling to abandon their long held prejudicial and religious beliefs in order to allow the GOP to grow a “bigger tent”. A question Republican leaders must be asking themselves is “How did it come to this?”

In my opinion the better question is “Why did this fracture line take so long to manifest itself?” When you stop to consider the unlikely union of the two main segments of the Republican Party, it is really amazing it held together as long as it did. On one hand we have the mainly fiscal conservatives or establishment Republicans who are mostly concerned with protecting big corporations, business owners and one percenters who fund Republican campaigns. On the other hand we have blue collar workers and Southern rednecks who are mostly concerned with imposing their social and religious views on others and ostracizing anyone who does not look like them, talk like them, or worship like them.

While they are loosely bond by their conservative philosophies, it would be hard to describe two more different groups of people. However, for quite some time they had a successful symbiotic relationship. The establishment Republicans who are primarily fiscal conservatives in suits strongly supported and gave respectability to the social conservatives  provide funding for election campaigns. The latter group provided the establishment Republicans with the numbers at the polls necessary to win elections. The relationship between the two groups worked well for everyone involved for years.

The problems began when the establishment Republicans began to realize that votes of social conservatives alone will no longer be adequate to win future national elections. They began to understand that if their party is to stay relevant nationally, they will have to build a bigger Republican tent. Due to demographic shifts in the U.S. voter population, the establishment Republicans decided that they will have to attract more people of color, Hispanics, and single women – all rapidly growing voter groups. However, the policy changes advocated by establishment Republicans to attract those voters runs counter the intolerance and religious prejudices of their socially conservative base.

In order to attract more diverse support in the voting booth Republican leaders realized they would have to back away from their previously staunch stances against illegal immigrants. They also would have to also tamp down their strict law and order positions and become more supportive of disadvantaged intercity populations. They would also have to relax their stances against abortion and advocate greater economic equality for women. However, each of these policy changes can also be considered a direct attack on the key principles of the Republican Party’s socially conservative base.

After dutifully following instructions from establishment Republican to nominate “electable candidates” during the last two Presidential election cycles – efforts which failed miserably by the way – more and more rank and file Republicans felt that they were being forced to support Presidential candidates who were far too moderate for their tastes. They have also become highly frustrated with the Republican majorities in both the House and the Senate who they believe have been totally ineffective is promoting “conservative values”. Therefore the social conservatives consequently felt that they had no choice but to rebel. Hence their strong support for Trump and Cruz who directly speak pander to them.

This situation strongly calls into question the future viability of the Republican Party. Establishment Republicans cannot be relevant without their socially conservative base. On the other hand if they cannot convince their base to go along with the policy changes necessary to attract a more diverse Republican voting population (and that seems unlikely), demographic momentum will doom their efforts on the national stage. Furthermore, if Republicans leaders continue to alienate their base with demands for pragmatic policy changes aimed at attracting more voters to their cause, a continuing revolt by the GOP base could result in a series of Republican Presidential nominees who would have little hope of capturing the White House. Regardless of the ultimate outcome of this inter-mural battle, the future does not look good for the Republican Party

Cajun     1/18/2016