Okay, the Blue Wave was large, but it was not a tsunami. As I write this the morning after the mid-term elections Democrats have taken over control of the House of Representative, but lost ground in the Senate. At first glance that seems to be a mixed bag. However, we have to consider how important it is that Democrats now have the opportunity to restore the checks and balances over the Trump Administration that comes with the House victory. Also it equally and perhaps more important that Democrats can now stop cold any future assaults on Obamacare, Social Security and other programs vital to the American people. In addition, we must consider that the political climate displayed in the just completed elections spells trouble for Trump in 2020 and that the electoral map for the Senate turns against the Republicans in 2020 and 2022.
In districts where election results are final, Democrats have already won 222 House seats, exceeding the 218 seats necessary to take control of that chamber of Congress and are poised to win many more. Meanwhile Republicans have won only 199 seats thus far.
Perhaps equally important is statement that yesterday’s elections made about the Trump’s future in politics. Trump’s single-minded concentration on keeping his base of supporters intact and turning them out in elections certainly helped Republicans retain control of the Senate, but it does not bode well for his political future. It is clear from the results of the House races that the college educated population in the suburbs, especially college educated women, have turned against Trump in a big way.
The just completed elections indicated that Trump’s stoking of his base with race his bating rhetoric tended to alienate everyone else. Trump aided Republican pickups in the Senate occurred in traditionally deep red states with predominately rural populations. However, Democrat pickups in the House indicate that voters in many of the traditionally Republican suburban districts have been turned off by Trump’s continual lies and fear mongering. In the 2020 presidential election Trump is likely to maintain his strangle hold in red states with small populations and the rural areas of larger states. However, his base is very likely to be out voted in the much more populated urban and suburban areas of our country. That is not a good formula for Trump in 2020.
The Senate is a much tougher nut to crack solely because every state has two senators regardless of the sizes of their populations. For instance, populations of states like Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota are so small that they only warrant one seat in the House of Representatives, but each have two seats in the Senate just like states with much larger populations. And most small population states are mostly rural and not coincidentally are usually colored deep red politically. For instance, Wyoming with a population 564,000 has the same representation in the Senate as California which has a population of 35.5 million. Therefore, the mostly rural states where Trump is popular have a non-proportionally large representation in the US Senate.
More to point, the Senate map this year greatly favored the Republicans. Going into the mid-term Senate elections Nate Silver’s widely regarded 538 website give Democrats only a 19.1% (approximately one in five) chance of taking back the Senate. That’s because before the election The U.S. Senate has 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats (including two independents) and yesterday of 35 Senate seats up for grabs 26 were held by Democrats. In addition to having more seats to defend, several of those Democratic Senators faced reelections in ruby red states where Trump is very popular. The writing was on the wall.
In 2020 and 2022 Senate elections the situations will be reversed. In 2020 there are 23 Republican Senate seats up for grabs compared to just 12 held by Democrats. The numbers in 2022 are very similar with 22 Republican seats in play as opposed to only 11 held by Democrats. However, neither situation will it be a cake walk for Democrats. Since there are more rural red states than there are the more populous blue states, many of those vulnerable Republican Senate seats in the 2020 and 2022 elections will be traditionally Republican territory.
However, the elections yesterday proved that even some of the traditionally red states may not be not be safe bets for Republicans in the future. Beto O’Rourke illustrated that even Texas is slowly turning purple. In addition, the governorships in two states previously held by Republicans, Michigan and Wisconsin, which were also key to Trump’s victory in 2016, were won by Democrats. Kris Kobach, a key Trump ally, was also trounced by a Democrat in ruby red Kansas. In the final returns Democratic candidates won governorships previously held by Republicans in seven held states. In addition, the House races proved that suburban areas in many red states have turned against Trump and his Republican allies.
So here are my bottom line conclusions: All things considered, after taking back the House or Representatives in yesterday’s elections, Democrats are poised to reclaim the White House in 2020 and also gain control of the Senate in 2020, or in 2022 at the latest, provided we field good candidates who will appeal broadly to their future constitutions and provided that the rest of us maintain the enthusiasm we displayed yesterday. We can’t let up!
Cajun 11/7/2018